Next, how about the 2023 wildfire season? All anyone can talk about is us up here in canada with our huge record year, but the continental USA was less than a 1/3 of average?

Last I heard, climate change doesn’t affect only one country so if it caused our record year than it also caused your very low year.

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Nov 29, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023

Footnote 1. It’s not that they are unaware of your work over at the NCA, it that your work does not support the narrative.

As to all the “data” you list above, as Homer Simpson said, “you can prove anything with facts.”

I think Piltdown Mann is on record as stating that attribution science tells us that the hurricane season really wanted to be bigger and badder, and as we know feelings trump facts.

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How well has the insurance industry as a whole or the re-insurance subset performed financially over the past decades? If extreme weather was truly worsening ("its worse than we thought!" as the alarmists & Weather Channel cajole us, despite the data or even AR6!) then these companies should have suffered losses or just gotten-by.

No doubt inflation (see the "Inflation Induction Act") has added significantly to whatever rebuilding costs they need to cover. But a financially sound insurance sector might suggest the climate hype is just that - self-serving hype.

As to El Niño prediction, the lack of skill of the general circulation models to be able to predict a year or 2 ahead of time one of the most globally consequential, cyclical weather events on the planet is damning. And they want us to believe that they can predict future temperatures to a few tenths of a degree ?

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So life imitates art :) The newly-released cover song Hurricane by The Castellows cites "the old man down in the Quarter" saying that they "come around every June"... so yes, these were always expected. Note this song was written before Levon Helm recorded it in 1980 though, so maybe today the lyrics could be all different blaming these regular events on a climate crisis, right? The last verse has the old man saying "Don't you listen to that boy!" when he says the levee should be 3 feet higher. Today the boy would no doubt respond "How Dare You!" - great song BTW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QJniU31NpI

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Thanks as a long term Florida resident I was happy to read this report. Unfortunately the insurance industry must be using the predictions which you show have been remarkably wrong. This year Florida saw an increase of 40% in the average home insurance premiums largely due to wind riders. While we realize that a catastrophic storm in a highly populated area could cause significant and costly damage the premium increases do not appear justified. I think the insurers are using faulty weather predictions to justify their actions.

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"...The 1926 season has pushed over $300 billion and 2005 over $200 billion. In coming months I will update the global catastrophe loss time series, once 2023 comes to a close, ..."

This makes no tense! (pun intended). What was it that was 'pushed over $300 billion', and how can a season almost a century ago 'has pushed' whatever it was that was pushed?

Maybe "...The 1926 season has pushed [damage normalized to 2023$] over $300 billion and 2005 over $200 billion. In coming months I will update the global catastrophe loss time series, once 2023 comes to a close, ..."

Speculating, are you trying to say that 'the 1926 season, when (re)normalized to 2023 dollars, will slightly exceed $300b?"

If so, shouldn't the y-axis on your 'Conus Normalized Hurricane Damage (2023 values)' be labelled 'Billions (2023$)? Its clear that you have redone the graph, so adding the '(2023$)' should have been trivial to do.

Yeah, I know, these are just nits, but hey, what's a nit-picker going to do?


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Nov 28, 2023Liked by Roger Pielke Jr.

Thank you for this information which I find extremely interesting. I make sure I pass it along to friends and family so they are aware.

Headlines in the media tend to exaggerate climate impacts. I suppose if it bleeds it leads, even if incorrect, still applies.

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