1. In December 2024, who will be the president-elect of the United States?
a. Joe Biden
b. Donald Trump
c. Someone else
Pielke: I’m going to go big … c. Someone else.
2. U.S. 2024 federal elections will see Democrats:
a. Winning the House and Senate
b. Winning the House but not the Senate
c. Winning the Senate but not the House
d. Winning neither the House nor the Senate
Pielke: Going with the status quo. C.
3. The DJIA is over 37,000 on the last trading day of 2023. On the last trading day of 2024 it will be:
a. <35,000
b. 35,000-38,000
c. 38,000-41,000
d. >41,000
Pielke: b. Will be a meh year.
4. In December 2024, Russia’s war on Ukraine will be:
a. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)
b. In a cease-fire
c. Continuing (much as in December 2022 and December 2023)
d. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving NATO or nuclear weapons)
Pielke: I don’t see how this ends. C.
5. In December 2024, the military conflict in Gaza will be:
a. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)
b. In a cease-fire
c. Continuing (much as in December 2023)
d. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving other combatants)
Pielke: I can’t see how this continues. A. or B., I’ll go with A.
6. Compared to 2023, in 2024, global fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will:
a. increase and increase
b. increase and decrease
c. decrease and increase
d. decrease and decrease
e. both will be within measurement error
Pielke: I think e. The long plateau continues.
7. According to NADA, through the first 11 months of 2023, auto dealers sold 1,007,984 battery electric vehicles in the United States. Through the first 11 months of 2024 the number of sales will be:
a. <1,000,000
b. 1,000,000-1,200,000 (yoy growth of 0-20%)
c. 1,200,000-1,500,000 (yoy growth of 20-50%)
d. >1,500,000 (yoy growth of >50%)
Pielke: d. take the over.
8. Which of these teams will win a championship? (Or enter your own guesses in the comments)
a. EPL: Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City
b. NFL: Baltimore, Miami, San Francisco, Philadelphia
c. NCAA Volleyball (W): Texas, Nebraska, Stanford, Tennessee
d. Bundesliga: Leverkusen, Bayern, Stuttgart
e. NBA: Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nuggets
f. CFB: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Colorado
g. Bundesliga 2: Holstein Kiel, St. Pauli, Hamburg SV, Düsseldorf
h. NCAA Women March Madness: South Carolina, Iowa, NC State, Colorado
i. League or competition of your choice?
Pielke: Arsenal, Baltimore, Nebraska, Leverkusen, Nuggets, None of these, St. Pauli, Colorado
9. Which country will win the most Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
a. United States
b. China
c. Russia (aka ROC)
d. France+Germany+Italy+Netherlands
e. Other?
Pielke: b. China
10. The country with the most doping positives in 2024 will be:
a. A Peace Treaty will be forged between Israel and Arab states whereby the latter take responsibility for demobbing Hamas and providing a technocratic temporary government for Gaza – pending a future referendum across the Palestine Territories. But Iran will disagree and Israel will remain on full alert
1 c
2 c
3 c
4 c (noticing a pattern?)
5 c
6.....d
7 b
8 b -->KC
8 e --->Celtics
8 h --->NC State
9 a --> USA
10 c --> Russia
8b-->KC
Heh, heh, heh! So far, so good!
Never bet against Mahomes. ;-)
P.S. That was my only brain-over-heart pick. Celtics, NC State, and USA are all heart-over-brain. ;-)
1. b (the worst always seems to happen these days)
2. c
3. b
4. c
5. a or d (or d, followed by a)
6. e
7. c
8. Man City; Miami; Nebraska; Bayern; Celtics; Colorado; St Pauli; Colorado
9. a
10. c
Lots of these just guesses / supporting Roger's home state.
Let's go Colorado!
Here are mine:
1. In December 2024, who will be the president-elect of the United States?
a. Joe Biden
b. Donald Trump
c. Someone else
Pielke: I’m going to go big … c. Someone else.
2. U.S. 2024 federal elections will see Democrats:
a. Winning the House and Senate
b. Winning the House but not the Senate
c. Winning the Senate but not the House
d. Winning neither the House nor the Senate
Pielke: Going with the status quo. C.
3. The DJIA is over 37,000 on the last trading day of 2023. On the last trading day of 2024 it will be:
a. <35,000
b. 35,000-38,000
c. 38,000-41,000
d. >41,000
Pielke: b. Will be a meh year.
4. In December 2024, Russia’s war on Ukraine will be:
a. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)
b. In a cease-fire
c. Continuing (much as in December 2022 and December 2023)
d. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving NATO or nuclear weapons)
Pielke: I don’t see how this ends. C.
5. In December 2024, the military conflict in Gaza will be:
a. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)
b. In a cease-fire
c. Continuing (much as in December 2023)
d. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving other combatants)
Pielke: I can’t see how this continues. A. or B., I’ll go with A.
6. Compared to 2023, in 2024, global fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will:
a. increase and increase
b. increase and decrease
c. decrease and increase
d. decrease and decrease
e. both will be within measurement error
Pielke: I think e. The long plateau continues.
7. According to NADA, through the first 11 months of 2023, auto dealers sold 1,007,984 battery electric vehicles in the United States. Through the first 11 months of 2024 the number of sales will be:
a. <1,000,000
b. 1,000,000-1,200,000 (yoy growth of 0-20%)
c. 1,200,000-1,500,000 (yoy growth of 20-50%)
d. >1,500,000 (yoy growth of >50%)
Pielke: d. take the over.
8. Which of these teams will win a championship? (Or enter your own guesses in the comments)
a. EPL: Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City
b. NFL: Baltimore, Miami, San Francisco, Philadelphia
c. NCAA Volleyball (W): Texas, Nebraska, Stanford, Tennessee
d. Bundesliga: Leverkusen, Bayern, Stuttgart
e. NBA: Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nuggets
f. CFB: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Colorado
g. Bundesliga 2: Holstein Kiel, St. Pauli, Hamburg SV, Düsseldorf
h. NCAA Women March Madness: South Carolina, Iowa, NC State, Colorado
i. League or competition of your choice?
Pielke: Arsenal, Baltimore, Nebraska, Leverkusen, Nuggets, None of these, St. Pauli, Colorado
9. Which country will win the most Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
a. United States
b. China
c. Russia (aka ROC)
d. France+Germany+Italy+Netherlands
e. Other?
Pielke: b. China
10. The country with the most doping positives in 2024 will be:
a. United States
b. The EU 27
c. Russia
d. Kenya
e. ROW
Pielke: e. ROW
1 C
2 A
3 C
4 B
5 B
6 A
7 B
8 C (Nebraska)
9 don't care
10 don't care
1A, 2A, 3B, 4A, 5A, 6A, 7A, 8-don't care, 9B, 10C
Us
<1,000,0
Increased with other combatants
Over
38-41
Tepublicans will win both
The trick with this one is discerning what I hope will happen vs. what will most likely happen. Time for the fun:
1. c
2. c
3. b
4. b
5. a
6. a
7. a
8. F1 - Haas. Shrug...
9. b
10. b
1.b
2.c
3.c
4.b
5.b
6.a
7.b
8 ---
9.d
10.a
No discernible change in FF use, but a slight reduction in carbon intensity.
EV sales in USA will increase 20% YOY, mainly through a surge in imports from China
a. A Peace Treaty will be forged between Israel and Arab states whereby the latter take responsibility for demobbing Hamas and providing a technocratic temporary government for Gaza – pending a future referendum across the Palestine Territories. But Iran will disagree and Israel will remain on full alert
Sounds plausible
Between b and a. There will be an uneasy truce and never-ending talks.