The Honest Broker 2024 Home Office Pool

How will the coming year unfold?

Come on in, the water is great!

Back in the day, I really enjoyed the thought-provoking annual “office pool” quiz that New York Times columnist William Safire wrote every December laying out expectations for the coming year. The tradition provides a good excuse to think about the year to come, to share expectations and perspectives, and to draw a line in the sand that we can revisit (and have a good laugh at) 12 months later. It’s a worthwhile exercise — fun also.

The THB 2024 home office pool is below. Please enter your answers and (especially) your justifications in the comments, and I will do the same. I promise to have a look back one year from now to see just how wrong we all were!

1. In December 2024, who will be the president-elect of the United States?

   1. Joe Biden

   2. Donald Trump

   3. Someone else

2. U.S. 2024 federal elections will see Democrats:

   1. Winning the House and Senate

   2. Winning the House but not the Senate

   3. Winning the Senate but not the House

   4. Winning neither the House nor the Senate

3. The DJIA is over 37,000 on the last trading day of 2023. On the last trading day of 2024 it will be:

   1. <35,000

   2. 35,000-38,000

   3. 38,000-41,000

   4. >41,000

4. In December 2024, Russia’s war on Ukraine will be:

   1. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)

   2. In a cease-fire

   3. Continuing (much as in December 2022 and December 2023)

   4. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving NATO or nuclear weapons)

5. In December 2024, the military conflict in Gaza will be:

   1. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)

   2. In a cease-fire

   3. Continuing (much as in December 2023)

   4. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving other combatants)

6. Compared to 2023, in 2024, global fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will:

   1. increase and increase

   2. increase and decrease

   3. decrease and increase

   4. decrease and decrease

   5. both will be within measurement error

7. According to NADA, through the first 11 months of 2023, auto dealers sold 1,007,984 battery electric vehicles in the United States. Through the first 11 months of 2024 the number of sales will be:

   1. <1,000,000

   2. 1,000,000-1,200,000 (yoy growth of 0-20%)

   3. 1,200,000-1,500,000 (yoy growth of 20-50%)

   4. >1,500,000 (yoy growth of >50%)

8. Which of these teams will win a championship? (Or enter your own guesses in the comments)

   1. EPL: Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City

   2. NFL: Baltimore, Miami, San Francisco, Philadelphia

   3. NCAA Volleyball (W): Texas, Nebraska, Stanford, Tennessee

   4. Bundesliga: Leverkusen, Bayern, Stuttgart

   5. NBA: Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nuggets

   6. CFB: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Colorado

   7. Bundesliga 2: Holstein Kiel, St. Pauli, Hamburg SV, Düsseldorf

   8. NCAA Women March Madness: South Carolina, Iowa, NC State, Colorado

   9. League or competition of your choice?

9. Which country will win the most Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?

   1. United States

   2. China

   3. Russia (aka ROC)

   4. France+Germany+Italy+Netherlands

   5. Other?

10. The country with the most doping positives in 2024 will be:

    1. United States

    2. The EU 27

    3. Russia

    4. Kenya

    5. ROW

Thanks for reading! THB published almost 160 articles in 2023 thanks to your support, which are each read on average by ~20,000 people around the world in 142 countries. Watch this space, some big things are on deck for 2024 here at THB. I can’t wait to tell you about them. Thanks for your support, which makes the independent research and analysis of THB possible, and I wish you and yours a safe and happy coming year!