THB at 3!

The Honest Broker 2023 Annual Report

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The Honest Broker turns three today. Over the past year THB has gained almost 10,000 new subscribers and is adding new subscribers at a rate where everyone on the planet will be subscribed by the end of the decade!¹

OK, THB readers know well that simple extrapolations are the stuff of poor analyses. Far more important to me than the quantity of subscribers is the quality. You know who you are, and I thank each and every one of you.

I won’t go into any detail, but know that THB opens doors — Look, there is an open door up at the top of this post. I’m not exactly sure what it is about Substack but its reach is incredible, beyond anything I’ve done in my career. Your support of THB is making a real-world difference in science and policy.

The statistic I am most proud of: THB is read in all 50 US states and in 134 countries around the world. Here is another statistic that I am proud of — the paid subscriber retention rate at one year is 85%, and after two years it is also 85%. Thank you.

THB is a group effort. I read every comment and engage with many of them. I learn from your tips, critiques, advice and emails.² The crowdsourced editing is much appreciated, if humbling. Over the past year I’ve seen a noticeable increase in tipsters, whistleblowers and “psst, don’t say you got this from me but … .” Keep it coming.

THB has extremely high-quality and respectful comments and interactions. Again, thank — you guys are great.

Here is what to expect in year 4:

• More analyses of important issues where science meets politics. You’ve noticed an ebb and flow here as I typically post on what I’m working on — and topical foci come and go. Now that we’ve busted up RCP8.5 there will be less of that, but I will be watching as the world adjusts to new climate scenario realities, and yes, buckle up.

• I owe my academic colleagues several drafts of papers on science advice in COVID-19, based on the EScAPE project. Expect more posts on science advice around the world over the next year.

• In collaboration with Dan Sarewitz, I’m completing an edited volume of his career writings. It has been a pleasure to work with Dan on this and over the next year you’ll hear a lot more about Dan and his work — if you are unfamiliar with his work, boy are you in for a treat.

• There will be more guests posts. RP Sr. has an upcoming post in the next few weeks, and he will continue to feature at THB. Other experts will show up here as well. I will also be inviting junior scholars who do great work to publish here as well.

• I’m also continuing to noodle along the sequel to The Honest Broker — the book that gives this site its name. At some point I’ll bring that draft to THB readers.

• Based on the success of the TCF book club, I will also do a book club on my book The Edge next — probably starting in the spring, leading up to the France 2024 Olympics.

• For me, THB is wonderful intellectually because there are many days that I do not know what I’ll be writing about when I wake up in the morning and then something crosses my desk or is sent to me that just demands a post. I expect that the world will continue to be generous with content.

Consider this: Our February 2022 paper on plausible climate scenarios has been downloaded almost 22,000 times — placing it in the top 5% of all research outputs.³ That’s great. Well, THB has 22,000 unique readers 2 or 3 times per week.

When in 2022 I decided to focus my writing here at THB, I called it an experiment in a new approach to doing academic work, sharing it and engaging in an ongoing collaboration with readers. That experiment is going well. I am encouraged that a new model of public scholarship is emerging and that we are all a part of it.

Please do me a favor. In last December’s THB home office pool I predicted that THB would have >20,000 subscribers by the end of 2023. On the current growth rate THB will fall a bit short. If every one of you can take responsibility for signing up just one subscriber, then I’ll also be that much closer to reaching 8.5 billion!⁴

Final note: A paid subscriber emailed recently to ask me to have less material behind the paywall. They said that they were a paying THB subscriber not for exclusive access but to support the broad dissemination of THB to readers everywhere, especially in settings where decisions are made. I appreciated that.⁵

I welcome your support at whatever level makes sense for you.

Honest brokering is a group effort.

1. If you have not read the About page, please check it out!

2. I cannot reply to every email, but I read them all and frequently incorporate your tips, links, pointers and advice into my work. Thanks.

3. All credit to Matt Burgess and Justin Ritchie.

4. I will call this THB8.5.

5. There will continue to be paid subscriber-only material at THB, of course, but I take the point and will adjust accordingly.