The Honest Broker 2023 Home Office Pool

Predictions are a mugs game, let's play!

Delphic Sibyl (1508–1512), Michelangelo

Back in the day, on the eve of every new year, New York Times columnist William Safire wrote an “office pool” quiz, providing a good excuse to think about the year to come, to share expectations and to draw a line in the sand that we can revisit (and have a good laugh at) 365 days later. It’s a worthwhile exercise — fun also. So let’s get to it.

Please find my 2023 home office pool below. Please enter your answers and justifications in the comments, and I do the same after the jump. I promise to have a look back one year from now to see just how wrong we all were.

1. At the end of 2023, the presumptive (poll-leading) Democratic and Republican nominees for each party’s nomination for president in the 2024 election will be:

   1. Biden and Trump

   2. Biden and DeSantis

   3. Harris and DeSantis

   4. Other?

   5. December 2023 will be too soon to tell

2. The biggest political issue in the U.S. in 2023 will be:

   1. Joe Biden’s health

   2. Donald Trump & his followers

   3. Congressional investigations by Republicans

   4. Energy prices and inflation

   5. Something else?

3. In December 2023, Russia’s war on Ukraine will be:

   1. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)

   2. In a cease-fire

   3. Continuing (much as in December 2022)

   4. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving NATO or nuclear weapons)

4. The new geopolitical risk to emerge in 2023 will be:

   1. China aggression and Taiwan

   2. COVID-23 (a new, deadly strain)

   3. Rouge geoengineering

   4. Eco-terrorism

   5. Other?

5. The price of oil on 27 December 2023 will be:

   1. $80 (about the same as today +/-)

   2. >$100

   3. $80-$100

   4. $50-$80

   5. <$50

6. In advance of COP-28, the IEA will project that fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will have in 2023, respectively:

   1. increased and increased

   2. decreased and decreased

   3. increased and decreased

   4. decreased and increased

7. Which world leaders will lose their job in 2023 (pick as many as you’d like)?

   1. Putin

   2. Sunak

   3. Modi

   4. Zeylenski

   5. Other?

8. The number of tropical cyclones of major hurricane strength that will make landfall somewhere in the world over the next year will be:

   1. 4 or less

   2. 5-8

   3. 9-12

   4. 12+

9. Total economic losses from disasters around the world in 2023 (as estimated by Munich Re or Swiss Re) will be:

   1. <$100 billion

   2. $100-200 billion

   3. $200-300 billion

   4. $300-400 billion

   5. >$400 billion

10. The total number of subscribers to The Honest Broker one year from now will be:

    1. <10,000

    2. 10,000-15,000

    3. 15,000-20,000

    4. >20,000

Happy New Year everyone, and see you in 2023!

My answers and justifications appear below, after the jump.

The Honest Broker Christmas Special continues until 31 December. 25% off forever!