THB 2023 Home Office Pool: The Answers

I got 4/10, Not Bad! How'd you do?

2024 here we come!

Below are last year’s questions, and this year’s answers. Your comments are welcomed!

1. At the end of 2023, the presumptive (poll-leading) Democratic and Republican nominees for each party’s nomination for president in the 2024 election will be:

   1. Biden and Trump

   2. Biden and DeSantis

   3. Harris and DeSantis

   4. Other?

   5. December 2023 will be too soon to tell

      The answer is obviously a. Biden and Trump, but will both still be the party nominees in November? I’m not 100% on that. I had wrongly predicted b.

2. The biggest political issue in the U.S. in 2023 will be:

   1. Joe Biden’s health

   2. Donald Trump & his followers

   3. Congressional investigations by Republicans

   4. Energy prices and inflation

   5. Something else?

      A case could be made for a, b or d, but I’m going with d. Energy prices and inflation. I had predicted a., which may yet be a much bigger issue in 2024.

3. In December 2023, Russia’s war on Ukraine will be:

   1. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)

   2. In a cease-fire

   3. Continuing (much as in December 2022)

   4. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving NATO or nuclear weapons)

      The correct answer here is c. Continuing (much as in December 2022). I had this one correct, and I assume most of you did also.

4. The new geopolitical risk to emerge in 2023 will be:

   1. China aggression and Taiwan

   2. COVID-23 (a new, deadly strain)

   3. Rouge geoengineering

   4. Eco-terrorism

   5. Other?

      The correct answer here was e. Other? with October 7th and its aftermath a candidate for the most significant geopolitical event of 2023. I had guessed d. Wrong!

5. The price of oil on 27 December 2023 will be:

   1. $80 (about the same as today +/-)

   2. >$100

   3. $80-$100

   4. $50-$80

   5. <$50

      The correct answer here is a. $80 (about the same as today +/-). I had guessed c. expecting some upside pressures, which did materialize a few months ago, and since have dissipated. What will 2024 bring?

6. In advance of COP-28, the IEA will project that fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will have in 2023, respectively:

   1. increased and increased

   2. decreased and decreased

   3. increased and decreased

   4. decreased and increased

      The correct answer here is a. increased and increased — which was the obvious guess — although based on early estimates it will be close to even, and certainly within the margin of measurement error. It is safe to say that sharp reductions in either metric did not occur. I had guessed c. Wrong again!

7. Which world leaders will lose their job in 2023 (pick as many as you’d like)?

   1. Putin

   2. Sunak

   3. Modi

   4. Zeylenski

   5. Other?

      The correct answer here was e. Other? I got this one correct. Leaders who are no longer in charge at the end of 2023 include: Jacinda Ardern (New Zealand), Sanna Marin (Finland), Eduard Heger (Slovakia), António Costa (Portugal), Mark Rutte (Netherlands), Alberto Fernández (Argentina). Who did I miss? Who loses their job in 2024?

8. The number of tropical cyclones of major hurricane strength that will make landfall somewhere in the world over the next year will be:

   1. 4 or less

   2. 5-8

   3. 9-12

   4. 12+

      Every year, Ryan Maue and I do an update of global landfalls (well, Ryan does the heavy lifting!). So the numbers at present are preliminary, but it looks like b. 5-8 is correct. I’ll update when we have the official numbers. If they stay in this range, then I got this one correct.

9. Total economic losses from disasters around the world in 2023 (as estimated by Munich Re or Swiss Re) will be:

   1. <$100 billion

   2. $100-200 billion

   3. $200-300 billion

   4. $300-400 billion

   5. >$400 billion

      Here as well, the official numbers will have to await early 2024, but it looks like c. $200-300 billion will be correct. Weather and climate-related disasters may come in <$200 billion due to the low damage from U.S. hurricanes. If these numbers hold, then I got this one correct also. Watch for my comprehensive update in early 2024.

10. The total number of subscribers to The Honest Broker one year from now will be:

    1. <10,000

    2. 10,000-15,000

    3. 15,000-20,000

    4. >20,000

       THB didn’t quite get to 20,000 subscribers, but we did get close, eclipsing 18,000 in late December! Here is to 30k in 2024!

Look for the THB 2024 Home Office Pool to be posted here after Christmas. Meantime, I wish you Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Thanks for reading!