Re your Atlantic hurricane plot. You use median numbers as measures of central tendency. If I
extract your data, which I can only do "by eye", I find: La Nina, n=20, mean = 21.8; Neutral, n=24, mean = 16.8; El Nino, n=17, mean = 11.9. (You could check using the actual numbers.)
Same order ... La Nina>Neutral>El Nino. But, large variability, so I suspect no significant differences. (From Tom Wigley.)
Love the "cherry-picker" graph set concept. Maybe you could follow these with a John Kerry/Al Gore Arctic and Antarctic Ice prediction over the years vs. actual.
Excellent post. It complements a post by Michael Shellenberger today on PUBLIC. Glad to see that you will be participating in this Fall's "Alliance for Responsible Citizenship" in London.
That's probably because they have to spend 20 minutes trying to understand what you are saying as opposed to the 20 seconds it takes to listen to the BS on TV or in social media.
"We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase…"
I wonder if the powers-that-be will demand a retraction and scold the NOAA for publishing such heresy! (I say this with tongue-in-cheek, partially).
Seriously, thanks for this week’s update. Weather has been much in the news, and it is good to have an objective assessment of the relationship of that weather to the overall climate.
Thank you for sharing your insight. Do you have any details on how the heatwaves and flooding in Europe this year compare to history and climate predictions?
Was reading the other day how ski resorts in the alps still have snow to allow some activity in mid-august, unusual, but of course no mention in the msm.
I live in Alberta, flew to vancouver island to go fishing, 10days ago same as every year, mid-august. On the coastal bc glaciers there is still lots of unmelted snow from last winter, all usually gone by now, just the dirty gray old stuff. Took pictures.
If it holds out that means, you guessed it, all those glaciers grew this year.
"You will also likely hear claims that hurricanes now result in greater precipitation".
Yes, "attribution science", unbelievable snake oil, Lysenkoism at its finest.
As seen last year, when the models predicted 65% chance of above average activity, 10% below, and it was way below, but the one hurricane that does hit the USA, Ian, of course they state it was 10% wetter due to AWG.
“Why Hurricanes Are Becoming More Intense”
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate-environment/hurricane-idalia-why-climate-change-17ef3607?st=8k2syq20gr33jrs&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
This article in the WSJ today. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate-environment/hurricane-idalia-why-climate-change-17ef3607
There was a similar one last week. I sent the authors a copy of your post. Anyone think I'll get a response?
You quote directly from NOAA and IPCC both of whom confirm no trend. And yet the Alimonti paper is withdrawn.
Re your Atlantic hurricane plot. You use median numbers as measures of central tendency. If I
extract your data, which I can only do "by eye", I find: La Nina, n=20, mean = 21.8; Neutral, n=24, mean = 16.8; El Nino, n=17, mean = 11.9. (You could check using the actual numbers.)
Same order ... La Nina>Neutral>El Nino. But, large variability, so I suspect no significant differences. (From Tom Wigley.)
Hi Tom! Have a look at our paper on this for a more detailed analysis of both storms and damage. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/7/bams-d-17-0184.1.xml?tab_body=abstract-display
You are correct about the large variability.
Another to the point, easy to digest and understand post. Thank you.
Love the "cherry-picker" graph set concept. Maybe you could follow these with a John Kerry/Al Gore Arctic and Antarctic Ice prediction over the years vs. actual.
Excellent post. It complements a post by Michael Shellenberger today on PUBLIC. Glad to see that you will be participating in this Fall's "Alliance for Responsible Citizenship" in London.
https://public.substack.com/p/pseudoscience-greed-and-nihilism/comments
Can’t wait to share this data at the next cocktail party. Facts don’t lie.
Thank you
When I share this info with students and colleagues the first reaction always is complete disbelief followed by suspicions of me
Sign of the times
Do students fact check you and proof conclusively that you are wrong?
;-)
I remember when the surface temperature anomaly had been flat for almost 20 years, almost out of the 95% confidence interval. And nobody knew about it
It was clear that the narrative typhoon was very robust against contrary statistics
That's probably because they have to spend 20 minutes trying to understand what you are saying as opposed to the 20 seconds it takes to listen to the BS on TV or in social media.
Frequent repetition of propaganda is a powerful tool.
Our government has realized that "Disinformation Governance" is far easier when it is also the source of the disinformation.
"We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase…"
I wonder if the powers-that-be will demand a retraction and scold the NOAA for publishing such heresy! (I say this with tongue-in-cheek, partially).
Seriously, thanks for this week’s update. Weather has been much in the news, and it is good to have an objective assessment of the relationship of that weather to the overall climate.
As "Manntastic" as he believes he is, I don't think Michael Mann has reached "powers-that-be" status yet, though he might disagree. ;-)
Good stuff. Very educational. Thank you.
Thank you for sharing your insight. Do you have any details on how the heatwaves and flooding in Europe this year compare to history and climate predictions?
Was reading the other day how ski resorts in the alps still have snow to allow some activity in mid-august, unusual, but of course no mention in the msm.
I live in Alberta, flew to vancouver island to go fishing, 10days ago same as every year, mid-august. On the coastal bc glaciers there is still lots of unmelted snow from last winter, all usually gone by now, just the dirty gray old stuff. Took pictures.
If it holds out that means, you guessed it, all those glaciers grew this year.
Isn’t weather strange and wonderful??
Sorry, can't help but reply
Southern europe had some heat, the rest cool.
"Europe" as a whole will likely end up cooler than average, but too soon to tell.
"You will also likely hear claims that hurricanes now result in greater precipitation".
Yes, "attribution science", unbelievable snake oil, Lysenkoism at its finest.
As seen last year, when the models predicted 65% chance of above average activity, 10% below, and it was way below, but the one hurricane that does hit the USA, Ian, of course they state it was 10% wetter due to AWG.
And the usual suspects lap it up.
Is 10% the new 97%?
Ah well, who can argue with "science".
Just us evildoer deniers.