I dont like Thanksgiving because the weather is usually awful, I eat too much, and I don't give Xmas gifts, which means I don't go shopping on Friday. I like the football games, but we are getting too many. My proposal is to move Thanksgiving to late February to celebrate doing our tax returns ahead of the deadline.
I always benefit from your thoughtful, balanced analysis. So I wonder if you might address a recent post by Quico Toro about the influence of aerosols and Saharan dust on Atlantic Ocean temperatures and hurricanes:
In the spirit of Intellectual Hospitality and open debate I would like make a challenge. In the past thirty years published papers have shown several trends. World surface temperatures have been overestimated from many causes and are falling each year. Many papers show increasing negative feedback and positive feedback have been debunked. Climate sensitivity estimates appear to be falling every year. In short the estimated future temperature rise is modest and decreasing. The increase is also primarily in the colder areas of the earth at night. Commanding this are many papers showing lower portion of CO2 from burning fossil fuels reach the atmosphere. A huge number of papers and data sources have shown the benefits to the earth's
flora and fauna from higher CO2.
So, here is the challenge. Roger, make this blog the first to openly state that the world will be better off with higher CO2 so there is no need to reduce fossil fuels use. Invite paper that refute that assertion and papers that support the benefits and deficits of that assertion. The world is not monolithic so this should generate many, many papers about local impact of increasing CO2.
Roger, I have been following you, quietly, for a while. Well done, brave, thoughtful, and an important contribution to the wellbeing of our societies. My background is earth sciences and spectral physics, which has made it particularly difficult to watch the unfolding tragedy. Stay the course, please, we also are working the problem over here in Europe.
Thank you for this gloss on "freedom of expression. I'll offer an Edmund Burke perspective as well: Begin from gratitude for what works in society, rather than from outrage at what does not work. Happy Thanksgiving!
I'm a markets guy (43 yrs, after throwing away two engineering degrees! <smile>). The most important marketplace is the marketplace of ideas. Thank you for supporting that and for calling out the the BS'ers. I don't agree with you on everything, but we don't have to ! Happy Thanksgiving.
Great points and references to important thinkers! While I appreciate that this piece is written by an American, on the occasion of American Thanksgiving, and talking about American democracy - it's important to note that these ideas are applicable around the globe. Constraints on debate and passionate yet limited points of view are found everywhere, and pose as much danger to other global societies as they do to American society, although people in many other countries have even more challenges to free speech and open thinking to overcome.
Great quotes, Roger, thank you.! And Happy Thanksgiving to you and the THB community. I am grateful for you all.
As to the “compromised” NAS, I looked at the sponsors and could easily figure out what the answers are likely to be. Frankly, in every NAS study I’ve seen (just in my own area), I’ve found the results to be fairly predictable.. usually “we need more money for this program” if the program aficionados fund it. It would be interesting for students to select a few specific topic areas, look at NAS studies over time, and see if this is a general pattern. Not sure I would call it “compromised” exactly. I’d say “it’s possible various kinds of self-interest are not well managed.”
I think there is a much of this self-stimulation among science institutions of all kinds. Interesting that the topics (and the inner workings of powerful foundations) are not themselves much studied. It's almost as if there is no science meta-institution working on continuous improvement of the science biz.
I find the issue at NASEM to be sprawling, heavy and blatant in the climate space but evident elsewhere. The recording linked to above is a worthwhile listen; it’s pretty wild.
Without open debate there is no such thing as democracy or science.
With Wright coming in as energy secretary I would like to see him force a public debate on the facts as to whether there is a climate emergency.
As this red herring causes massive misallocation of resources and puts us all in danger, there is nothing more important that Trump can do than establish sane energy and climate policy.
THB has to be a part of that. Would LOVE to see Piltdown Mann forced to defend his beliefs in public, on stage, with no gatekeepers protecting him from answering questions and debating.
A good thanksgiving to all my American friends, hopefully all the ones in pittsburgh have their turkey’s locked and loaded and they can settle in for the snow.
I love being cosy inside with my gas furnace while the snow flies.
All the best.
Ps
Sorry about Arsenal, Pool running away with it, although I think we can all be thankful City is imploding.
“Openness of mind means accessibility of mind to any and every consideration…”
Too often in my experience, this call for open-mindedness is used against those with a ‘Chesterton’s fence’ conservative sensibility which does not readily accept ‘change for the sake of change’, a sensibility common to many progressive thinkers. To hesitate and consider the reasons that might encourage keeping the fence is lambasted as ‘close-mindedness’. Chesterton was an example of a thinker open to considering options while insisting that many fences exist for good reason. We need to keep this sensibility in our open minds…
https://www.dailywire.com/news/john-kerry-we-need-to-declare-a-climate-emergency-and-get-people-to-behave
I dont like Thanksgiving because the weather is usually awful, I eat too much, and I don't give Xmas gifts, which means I don't go shopping on Friday. I like the football games, but we are getting too many. My proposal is to move Thanksgiving to late February to celebrate doing our tax returns ahead of the deadline.
I always benefit from your thoughtful, balanced analysis. So I wonder if you might address a recent post by Quico Toro about the influence of aerosols and Saharan dust on Atlantic Ocean temperatures and hurricanes:
https://www.persuasion.community/p/youre-thinking-about-hurricanes-all
In the spirit of Intellectual Hospitality and open debate I would like make a challenge. In the past thirty years published papers have shown several trends. World surface temperatures have been overestimated from many causes and are falling each year. Many papers show increasing negative feedback and positive feedback have been debunked. Climate sensitivity estimates appear to be falling every year. In short the estimated future temperature rise is modest and decreasing. The increase is also primarily in the colder areas of the earth at night. Commanding this are many papers showing lower portion of CO2 from burning fossil fuels reach the atmosphere. A huge number of papers and data sources have shown the benefits to the earth's
flora and fauna from higher CO2.
So, here is the challenge. Roger, make this blog the first to openly state that the world will be better off with higher CO2 so there is no need to reduce fossil fuels use. Invite paper that refute that assertion and papers that support the benefits and deficits of that assertion. The world is not monolithic so this should generate many, many papers about local impact of increasing CO2.
Don't forget we ARE running out of cheap fossil fuels. Oil has a definite trend we have to consider, but gas should follow within two decades.
Really lovely thanksgiving sentiment!
Thank you, Roger, for your insights and providing a platform for hospitable open debate. As Mike Hulme has said, "in disagreement there is learning."
Roger, I have been following you, quietly, for a while. Well done, brave, thoughtful, and an important contribution to the wellbeing of our societies. My background is earth sciences and spectral physics, which has made it particularly difficult to watch the unfolding tragedy. Stay the course, please, we also are working the problem over here in Europe.
Thank you for this gloss on "freedom of expression. I'll offer an Edmund Burke perspective as well: Begin from gratitude for what works in society, rather than from outrage at what does not work. Happy Thanksgiving!
I'm a markets guy (43 yrs, after throwing away two engineering degrees! <smile>). The most important marketplace is the marketplace of ideas. Thank you for supporting that and for calling out the the BS'ers. I don't agree with you on everything, but we don't have to ! Happy Thanksgiving.
Roger, thank you for a very well written article. Also wishing you and your family a happy Thanksgiving.
Great points and references to important thinkers! While I appreciate that this piece is written by an American, on the occasion of American Thanksgiving, and talking about American democracy - it's important to note that these ideas are applicable around the globe. Constraints on debate and passionate yet limited points of view are found everywhere, and pose as much danger to other global societies as they do to American society, although people in many other countries have even more challenges to free speech and open thinking to overcome.
I don't understand how you can deal with a criminal thug like John Kerry with the entire lying global corporate media behind by being polite.
l gave up 10 years ago due to the endless lies from so called scientists.
To me your greatest contribution is to say 'this won't work'. Not in a liberal democracy anyway I would add. Ominously.
Best wishes.
Well said. A lesson for all of us, in all aspects of life. Most of us want to be right, I guess.
Great quotes, Roger, thank you.! And Happy Thanksgiving to you and the THB community. I am grateful for you all.
As to the “compromised” NAS, I looked at the sponsors and could easily figure out what the answers are likely to be. Frankly, in every NAS study I’ve seen (just in my own area), I’ve found the results to be fairly predictable.. usually “we need more money for this program” if the program aficionados fund it. It would be interesting for students to select a few specific topic areas, look at NAS studies over time, and see if this is a general pattern. Not sure I would call it “compromised” exactly. I’d say “it’s possible various kinds of self-interest are not well managed.”
I think there is a much of this self-stimulation among science institutions of all kinds. Interesting that the topics (and the inner workings of powerful foundations) are not themselves much studied. It's almost as if there is no science meta-institution working on continuous improvement of the science biz.
I find the issue at NASEM to be sprawling, heavy and blatant in the climate space but evident elsewhere. The recording linked to above is a worthwhile listen; it’s pretty wild.
Without open debate there is no such thing as democracy or science.
With Wright coming in as energy secretary I would like to see him force a public debate on the facts as to whether there is a climate emergency.
As this red herring causes massive misallocation of resources and puts us all in danger, there is nothing more important that Trump can do than establish sane energy and climate policy.
THB has to be a part of that. Would LOVE to see Piltdown Mann forced to defend his beliefs in public, on stage, with no gatekeepers protecting him from answering questions and debating.
A good thanksgiving to all my American friends, hopefully all the ones in pittsburgh have their turkey’s locked and loaded and they can settle in for the snow.
I love being cosy inside with my gas furnace while the snow flies.
All the best.
Ps
Sorry about Arsenal, Pool running away with it, although I think we can all be thankful City is imploding.
😀
"decision-based evidence making" remains the highlight of my year! Thank you sir (I assume)
Agree very much with your suggestion about a public debate. I'd pay good money to see that.
Mann cannot debate, only bluster.
“Openness of mind means accessibility of mind to any and every consideration…”
Too often in my experience, this call for open-mindedness is used against those with a ‘Chesterton’s fence’ conservative sensibility which does not readily accept ‘change for the sake of change’, a sensibility common to many progressive thinkers. To hesitate and consider the reasons that might encourage keeping the fence is lambasted as ‘close-mindedness’. Chesterton was an example of a thinker open to considering options while insisting that many fences exist for good reason. We need to keep this sensibility in our open minds…