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We like the damage as a % of GDP metric better than nominal dollars. Lives lost to weather catastrophe over ~100 years is an even more compelling metric.

Just checked NHC's website. Atlantic basin all clear, no expected activity next 48 hours.

9/10 is peak. That's hardly a month away. We find Judy Curry's work on the location and mode of ENSO in the Pacific in relation to the Atlantic basin hurricane season more than a bit interesting. (if we understand it, with an emerging influence/relation to conditions in the Arctic?)

Good piece, Roger!

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That would be greart. Thank you. The narrative that the oceans are rising/dying (Gulf Stream collapsing, coral reefs bleaching out, etc.) is a pretty constant drumbeat. And maybe it's true - it seems credible and scary. But much of it comes from the same media outlets and groups that seem to have no problem with massive windmill construction in Right Whale breeding grounds for example. So, I just wonder if perhaps part of it is climate scare cherry picking.

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“(Gulf Stream collapsing, coral reefs bleaching out, etc.) is a pretty constant drumbeat. And maybe it's true - it seems credible and scary. ”

It’s not true, it’s extremely unlikely. If you spend more time worrying about it than you spent typing that you are ruining your life for nothing.

Have a good weekend

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Roger, nice post.

Question: Over the last several decades, how successful have insurance companies who cover weather related losses been in maintaining shareholder value? Meaning, has the hype about the extreme weather events/losses actually corresponded to hurting a portfolio of insurance companies?

[not sure if you could carve out earhquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes etc from the losses]

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Roger, I’m trying to recall the survey that you asked readers to respond to. I kept a copy of my answers but what did the survey cover and when was the “reveal” scheduled?

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Maybe it was my 2023 home office pool?

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-honest-broker-2023-home-office

I'll revisit is December!

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Aug 3, 2023·edited Aug 3, 2023Liked by Roger Pielke Jr.

Roger, it looks like the recent hail years have been less bad (solid lines) than before (dashed lines).

1. What do the trends look like over time, say last 20 years? 2. What does IPCC say about hail? Thanks!

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Hail damage is down which means extreme weather is down which tracks with everything else Roger has been posting.

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Trends in US hail are sharply down over ~20 years (if you zoom in on the data table in the figure in this post you can see the annual report counts by year. IPCC says that little to nothing can be said about hail and climate change.

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Aug 3, 2023Liked by Roger Pielke Jr.

Thank you for all of your great work. Maybe I've missed something that you've done in the past, but I'd be very interested on your focused take re: sea level rise (or not) and ocean temperatures.

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Mark, here is an interesting new post but be careful as it’s from a denier website.

Dangerous information to be sure

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/08/06/despite-alarmists-denials-statue-of-liberty-photos-expose-sea-level-rise-acceleration-failed-projections/

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Thanks for the link. Creative and nicely done study!

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Thanks! Not in my wheelhouse, but I will add to a list for perhaps a guest post.

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Thanks for transforming an oxymoron, practical environmentalism, into a rhyme, Roger.

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