14 Comments
User's avatar
environMENTAL's avatar

We like the damage as a % of GDP metric better than nominal dollars. Lives lost to weather catastrophe over ~100 years is an even more compelling metric.

Just checked NHC's website. Atlantic basin all clear, no expected activity next 48 hours.

9/10 is peak. That's hardly a month away. We find Judy Curry's work on the location and mode of ENSO in the Pacific in relation to the Atlantic basin hurricane season more than a bit interesting. (if we understand it, with an emerging influence/relation to conditions in the Arctic?)

Good piece, Roger!

Mark Haynes's avatar

That would be greart. Thank you. The narrative that the oceans are rising/dying (Gulf Stream collapsing, coral reefs bleaching out, etc.) is a pretty constant drumbeat. And maybe it's true - it seems credible and scary. But much of it comes from the same media outlets and groups that seem to have no problem with massive windmill construction in Right Whale breeding grounds for example. So, I just wonder if perhaps part of it is climate scare cherry picking.

Pat Robinson's avatar

“(Gulf Stream collapsing, coral reefs bleaching out, etc.) is a pretty constant drumbeat. And maybe it's true - it seems credible and scary. ”

It’s not true, it’s extremely unlikely. If you spend more time worrying about it than you spent typing that you are ruining your life for nothing.

Have a good weekend

William Zipperer's avatar

Roger, nice post.

Question: Over the last several decades, how successful have insurance companies who cover weather related losses been in maintaining shareholder value? Meaning, has the hype about the extreme weather events/losses actually corresponded to hurting a portfolio of insurance companies?

[not sure if you could carve out earhquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes etc from the losses]

Tom Hutchcraft's avatar

Roger, I’m trying to recall the survey that you asked readers to respond to. I kept a copy of my answers but what did the survey cover and when was the “reveal” scheduled?

Sharon F.'s avatar

Roger, it looks like the recent hail years have been less bad (solid lines) than before (dashed lines).

1. What do the trends look like over time, say last 20 years? 2. What does IPCC say about hail? Thanks!

Pat Robinson's avatar

Hail damage is down which means extreme weather is down which tracks with everything else Roger has been posting.

Roger Pielke Jr.'s avatar

Trends in US hail are sharply down over ~20 years (if you zoom in on the data table in the figure in this post you can see the annual report counts by year. IPCC says that little to nothing can be said about hail and climate change.

Mark Haynes's avatar

Thank you for all of your great work. Maybe I've missed something that you've done in the past, but I'd be very interested on your focused take re: sea level rise (or not) and ocean temperatures.

Mark Haynes's avatar

Thanks for the link. Creative and nicely done study!

Roger Pielke Jr.'s avatar

Thanks! Not in my wheelhouse, but I will add to a list for perhaps a guest post.

Stephen Heins's avatar

Thanks for transforming an oxymoron, practical environmentalism, into a rhyme, Roger.