As you may already know, the World Weather Attribution Centre issued a scientific report on the 2023 Quebec wildfire season. Some of their main findings:
- Climate change made the cumulative severity of Québec’s 2023 fire season to the end of July around 50% more intense, and seasons of this severity at least seven times more likely to occur. Peak fire weather (FWI7x) like that experienced this year is at least twice as likely, and the intensity has increased by about 20% due to human-induced climate change.
- Observed changes are typically larger than in the models.
- As expected, likelihood and intensity are projected to increase further in a 2°C warmer world.
- Changes in fire weather are associated with an increase in temperature and decrease in humidity, both of which are driven by human-induced warming; the effect was compounded in 2023 by unusually low precipitation.
Glad to see wildfires are declining, though the smoke around them hasn't. In the USA the Forestry Service deliberately suppressed the data that 'cool burning' - controlled lessening of fuel load - was effective for decades https://www.perc.org/2007/09/17/forest-policy-up-in-smoke/ see p5. Great outline on the practice and approach taken by a bureaucracy.
In the UK, proper management is forbidden by the authorities who refuse to listen to experienced land and biodiversity managers (one such has never had a wildfire, having always used 'cool burning' at the right time) , to the extent of threatening £30K fines for a farmer mowing a firebreak which stopped the fire locally - that fire cost £20million and affected 5 million people.
Thanks again for this post Dr Pielke. That graph showing the last 30 years of forest fire activity is very helpful when trying to tell someone that the current fire season is not a certain indicator of climate apocalypse.
But now my father in law is convinced that in just a few short years climate change will make most of equatorial Africa unliveable and Europe will be overrun with 10s of million desperate climate refugees.
Have you looked at any data that puts current heat waves and droughts in Africa and India in historic, political and economic context?
Great piece, Roger. Very helpful how you help layman like myself to dive into AR6 and check the information out for oneself!
I think I may have spotted a typo in this bullet point: "Neither Canada nor Quebec have not seen such increases this century;" Or did you really intend the double negative; if so, I would prefer a positive;-)
Just noticed something looking at the data again - 2020 was by far the quietest forest fire season in Canada both in number of fires reported and hectares burned. And what was going on in 2020? Everybody was locked down at home. Just a coincidence?
Funny how if I mention a two decade pause in temp rise or how Arctic summer ice extents have been on upswing since 2017 or there is no discernible trend in hurricanes, volcanos, floods, droughts, heatwaves or anything else (if things were really coming apart it would be noticeable!!!!) I get told climate is measured over minimum 30 years and I’m just a cherry picking internet troll, but we get one warm May and a bunch of idiots start some fires after a miserable winter and that’s climate, the planet on fire, a volcano, even though the data shows no trend.
On Skynews they blathered about how the Arctic is the “worlds refrigerator” and once the ice melts away in summer it will never return. Of course those of us with brain cells know it will return in fall, every fall, because the poles will always freeze up every winter, there is zero chance of that ever not happening even if you believe purple sky dragon fantasies and create RCP16.8 scenario where co2 gets driven to 5000ppm.
Terrific piece. So appropriate with all the misleading news stories. It is also interesting that almost all climate change models don't show a decrease in precip in Canada or even the upper Colorado river basin. The main human factor in increased fires ( if there is an increase) is population growth in the west since in the u.s 8 out of ten fires are ignited by humans.
You are right on with the complexity of wild fires, and the fact that no one who is actually looking at the data could conclude that the wild fires this year are caused by "climate change". I suggest that you may add 2 points to your discussion of wild fires. I suggest that any fair scientist or journalist should consider these points:
1. Severe wild fire particulate matter affects Solar production, driving it to near zero in many cases. I live in California, subject to wild fires and particulate matter in the air causing a layer of dense air. I installed a full set of 24 solar panels 4 years ago. During the severe wild fires in Northern California in 2020 I saw a great reduction in production
- In September 2020 Wildfires sent high levels of particulate matter into the skies.
- One day my solar production was only 0.5 Kwhr vs normal of 35 Kwhr.
- 5 days averaged 13.7 Kwhrs vs normal of 35 Kwhr / day.
- This implies that Planners need 10 + days of storage not the 1 day that is mostly discussed.
2. The US Forest Service under the Biden Administration has erased data that does not support the "Climate Change is the cause of Wild Fire increase" thesis.
The scientific data used to support the claims that “Wildfires” have become more frequent and more destructive depends on deleting the data prior to 1983. The US Forest Service supports this claim in recent literature by selectively presenting the USA burn acreage data for the years 1983 to 2006 which it shows an upward trend in burn acreage in the USA.
However, up until January 29, 2021 the Forest Service presented data showing Total acreage burned from 1916 to 2006.
The Wildfire acreage burned was as high as 50 million acres per year in some of the 1930s. Since 1983 the total for the USA varies from 5 to 10 million acres per year.
Who erases data that disagrees with their theory? Is this honest science.
Thanks for data, it’s all we’ve got with the climate/insane.
First, pet peeve as I live in Alberta.
Fires started by humans are not wild fires, they are “fires”.
We had a hotter than average May after a cold crappy winter and everyone rushed out to the countryside to take advantage and boom, fires everywhere within 2 days and no way to fight them as just too many all at once.
Stop starting fires and this would just be the nicest May in a decade.
That’s the entire story. 95% human caused.
Peeve 2.
I’m in Vienna this week and the only English Channel I get is Skynews which seems to be trying to overtake the BBC in hairbrained hair on fire climate alarmism for Britain. They are playing a loop about the smoke in NYC talking about how it started in the west of canada “then spread to eastern canada”, as though the whole country is on fire, buttressing it with a continental smoke map that basically shows the position of the jet stream which also explains why it’s hot and dry where it is.
It’s very misleading and if I was like most people instead of being someone who “reads” and “thinks” it would be very easy to fall for it.
Don’t even get me going on their other loop today about sea ice, just wrong wrong wrong.
Great Analysis Roger. I was reviewing similar data last night. There is a slightly longer historic graph of annual burned areas in Canada from the CNFDB going back to 1980 which exhibits a similar pattern (see https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/ha/nfdb)
It is noted below the graph that:
"Note that the data contained in the CNFDB are not complete nor are they without error. Not all fires have been mapped, and data accuracy varies due to different mapping techniques. This collection includes only data that has been contributed by the agencies. Data completeness and quality vary among agencies and between years."
The incompleteness of the data suggests that the areas burned in the past may have been under estimated.
An excellent and timely post. Below is an example of some the more egregious climate change hysteria that has been coming out of Canada lately. It is critical that we have the data that you have summarized to counter these stories:
As you may already know, the World Weather Attribution Centre issued a scientific report on the 2023 Quebec wildfire season. Some of their main findings:
- Climate change made the cumulative severity of Québec’s 2023 fire season to the end of July around 50% more intense, and seasons of this severity at least seven times more likely to occur. Peak fire weather (FWI7x) like that experienced this year is at least twice as likely, and the intensity has increased by about 20% due to human-induced climate change.
- Observed changes are typically larger than in the models.
- As expected, likelihood and intensity are projected to increase further in a 2°C warmer world.
- Changes in fire weather are associated with an increase in temperature and decrease in humidity, both of which are driven by human-induced warming; the effect was compounded in 2023 by unusually low precipitation.
For more information, see:
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/
Glad to see wildfires are declining, though the smoke around them hasn't. In the USA the Forestry Service deliberately suppressed the data that 'cool burning' - controlled lessening of fuel load - was effective for decades https://www.perc.org/2007/09/17/forest-policy-up-in-smoke/ see p5. Great outline on the practice and approach taken by a bureaucracy.
In the UK, proper management is forbidden by the authorities who refuse to listen to experienced land and biodiversity managers (one such has never had a wildfire, having always used 'cool burning' at the right time) , to the extent of threatening £30K fines for a farmer mowing a firebreak which stopped the fire locally - that fire cost £20million and affected 5 million people.
Paul G
Thanks again for this post Dr Pielke. That graph showing the last 30 years of forest fire activity is very helpful when trying to tell someone that the current fire season is not a certain indicator of climate apocalypse.
But now my father in law is convinced that in just a few short years climate change will make most of equatorial Africa unliveable and Europe will be overrun with 10s of million desperate climate refugees.
Have you looked at any data that puts current heat waves and droughts in Africa and India in historic, political and economic context?
A great post by Sharon F. on wildfire https://forestpolicypub.com/2023/06/15/canadian-wildfire-framings-climate-apocalypse-the-tim-hart-act-and-bad-luck/
Great piece, Roger. Very helpful how you help layman like myself to dive into AR6 and check the information out for oneself!
I think I may have spotted a typo in this bullet point: "Neither Canada nor Quebec have not seen such increases this century;" Or did you really intend the double negative; if so, I would prefer a positive;-)
Just noticed something looking at the data again - 2020 was by far the quietest forest fire season in Canada both in number of fires reported and hectares burned. And what was going on in 2020? Everybody was locked down at home. Just a coincidence?
Great thread from Ryan Maue on twitter about what Roger brings to the table with this kind of post: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1667961058919677952.
Funny how if I mention a two decade pause in temp rise or how Arctic summer ice extents have been on upswing since 2017 or there is no discernible trend in hurricanes, volcanos, floods, droughts, heatwaves or anything else (if things were really coming apart it would be noticeable!!!!) I get told climate is measured over minimum 30 years and I’m just a cherry picking internet troll, but we get one warm May and a bunch of idiots start some fires after a miserable winter and that’s climate, the planet on fire, a volcano, even though the data shows no trend.
On Skynews they blathered about how the Arctic is the “worlds refrigerator” and once the ice melts away in summer it will never return. Of course those of us with brain cells know it will return in fall, every fall, because the poles will always freeze up every winter, there is zero chance of that ever not happening even if you believe purple sky dragon fantasies and create RCP16.8 scenario where co2 gets driven to 5000ppm.
Terrific piece. So appropriate with all the misleading news stories. It is also interesting that almost all climate change models don't show a decrease in precip in Canada or even the upper Colorado river basin. The main human factor in increased fires ( if there is an increase) is population growth in the west since in the u.s 8 out of ten fires are ignited by humans.
“There are very good reasons to decarbonize the global economy” -- please name them. Thank you
Roger, Thank you.
You are right on with the complexity of wild fires, and the fact that no one who is actually looking at the data could conclude that the wild fires this year are caused by "climate change". I suggest that you may add 2 points to your discussion of wild fires. I suggest that any fair scientist or journalist should consider these points:
1. Severe wild fire particulate matter affects Solar production, driving it to near zero in many cases. I live in California, subject to wild fires and particulate matter in the air causing a layer of dense air. I installed a full set of 24 solar panels 4 years ago. During the severe wild fires in Northern California in 2020 I saw a great reduction in production
- In September 2020 Wildfires sent high levels of particulate matter into the skies.
- One day my solar production was only 0.5 Kwhr vs normal of 35 Kwhr.
- 5 days averaged 13.7 Kwhrs vs normal of 35 Kwhr / day.
- This implies that Planners need 10 + days of storage not the 1 day that is mostly discussed.
2. The US Forest Service under the Biden Administration has erased data that does not support the "Climate Change is the cause of Wild Fire increase" thesis.
The scientific data used to support the claims that “Wildfires” have become more frequent and more destructive depends on deleting the data prior to 1983. The US Forest Service supports this claim in recent literature by selectively presenting the USA burn acreage data for the years 1983 to 2006 which it shows an upward trend in burn acreage in the USA.
However, up until January 29, 2021 the Forest Service presented data showing Total acreage burned from 1916 to 2006.
The Wildfire acreage burned was as high as 50 million acres per year in some of the 1930s. Since 1983 the total for the USA varies from 5 to 10 million acres per year.
Who erases data that disagrees with their theory? Is this honest science.
Great piece Roger.
Thanks for data, it’s all we’ve got with the climate/insane.
First, pet peeve as I live in Alberta.
Fires started by humans are not wild fires, they are “fires”.
We had a hotter than average May after a cold crappy winter and everyone rushed out to the countryside to take advantage and boom, fires everywhere within 2 days and no way to fight them as just too many all at once.
Stop starting fires and this would just be the nicest May in a decade.
That’s the entire story. 95% human caused.
Peeve 2.
I’m in Vienna this week and the only English Channel I get is Skynews which seems to be trying to overtake the BBC in hairbrained hair on fire climate alarmism for Britain. They are playing a loop about the smoke in NYC talking about how it started in the west of canada “then spread to eastern canada”, as though the whole country is on fire, buttressing it with a continental smoke map that basically shows the position of the jet stream which also explains why it’s hot and dry where it is.
It’s very misleading and if I was like most people instead of being someone who “reads” and “thinks” it would be very easy to fall for it.
Don’t even get me going on their other loop today about sea ice, just wrong wrong wrong.
Infuriating.
Great Analysis Roger. I was reviewing similar data last night. There is a slightly longer historic graph of annual burned areas in Canada from the CNFDB going back to 1980 which exhibits a similar pattern (see https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/ha/nfdb)
It is noted below the graph that:
"Note that the data contained in the CNFDB are not complete nor are they without error. Not all fires have been mapped, and data accuracy varies due to different mapping techniques. This collection includes only data that has been contributed by the agencies. Data completeness and quality vary among agencies and between years."
The incompleteness of the data suggests that the areas burned in the past may have been under estimated.
Thank you for this timely post!
An excellent and timely post. Below is an example of some the more egregious climate change hysteria that has been coming out of Canada lately. It is critical that we have the data that you have summarized to counter these stories:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-no-wonder-alberta-is-on-fire-we-made-this-planet-into-a-volcano/
The Mayor of NYC called this "climate change in action".