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COVID deaths is a pretty noisy and probably meaningless measure - excess deaths would be much better. How deaths from/with/during COVID got scored differed too much for that number to be real. I suggest redoing the graph with excess deaths.

A quick look at the index components also suggests it isn't the greatest measure. Lots of stuff (inequality, for example) isn't really about preparedness at all. If the sub scores are available, drilling down and making an index of the relevant things and testing that might be better.

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Yes, excess deaths would also be worth regressing here.

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