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A first term president who wants to run for a second term has some incentives in their first term not to pursue extremely damaging policies. If they send the economy into a recession they risk not getting re-elected. Both Trump and Biden are pursuing second terms. If elected, what would prevent either of them from trying to do damaging things?

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Apr 20Liked by Roger Pielke Jr.

I don’t understand your reasoning for stating that GW Bush declared more emergencies than Clinton per year in office.

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author

Good catch!

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Apr 19·edited Apr 20

“In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill… All these dangers are caused by human intervention… The real enemy then, is humanity itself.” (Club of Rome, The First Global Revolution, 1991)

A Climate Emergency would be a blatant power grab, as was Covid, but I don't see much in the way of resistance arising from the masses. During Covid I did not lock down, surely did not vaccinate, and only rarely wore a mask if some store insisted. I never used hand sanitizer and never once stood on one of those damned 6-feet stickers. I did not like the attention my behavior brought my way, but so be it, as a free human being my mask (when forced to wear it -slit horizontally so I could breathe) said it all: SHEEP. We are not free unless we claim our freedom by our behavior.

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And today the green chicken weighs in with a piece about the lack of any climate emergency: https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/climate-the-article/comments

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An urgency supposed to last until the end of the century, or longer, cannot be considered an urgency.

Once a state of urgency is declared, it takes great efforts to repel it if its duration is not bound by a time limit in the country's constitution. Those who gained special powers under this situation are more than unwilling to give them up.

In my country (Switzerland), a few towns have declared a state of climate urgency. This has no practical effect other than to allow individuals or NGOs to sue the authorities for lack of action, since it will never be possible to do enough to change climate change.

What's more, who truly knows what is good for controlling the climate, what the objective should be, what means to be used?

We are collectively in a state of trials end errors, nothing to justify a state of urgency other than a power game.

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Is it possible that the administration is looking to coerce the fossil fuel industry to better support the President lest he makes that emergency declaration under the guise of the climate?

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A much more compelling question to ask is: "Does Atmospheric CO2 gas significantly cause the heating of planet Earth as levels of the gas rise?" The answer is a resounding, NO, as a 100% increase of CO2 (doubling) only reduces radiation to space by 1%. The reason is clear. The warming effect of each molecule of CO2 declines as its concentration increases in a logarithmic relationship. https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Diminishing-Returns.jpg . The IPCC, based on flawed science, says that the temperature will rise by 3 to 5 degrees C. by doubling the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

Those more enlightened on radiative forcing theory may take an interest in Van-wijngaarden and Happer's radiative transfer paper for five greenhouse gases https://co2coalition.org/publications/van-wijngaarden-and-happer-radiative-transfer-paper-for-five-greenhouse-gases-explained/.

Also, we nearly got wiped out by a dearth of CO2 in the last glacial maximum as is illustrated graphically as follows: https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/CO2_5.jpg

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Roger, this concept of CO2 saturation seems to go to the heart of the issue. Why doesn’t IPCC ever discuss it (or if it does, where does it discuss it)? Steven Koonin endorsed it as does Happer et al. (See Unsettled at 50-51). And why is there so little discussion of the extent to which CO2 is “the most important GHG”? SCOTUS said that it was in the first paragraph of Mass v. EPA in 2007. But it seems commonly accepted that water vapor and clouds are the most important GHG. How can multi trillion dollar policy be based on junk science and no one effectively rebut it?

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Simply, the catastrophists will not debate the issue under any circumstances. They would get wiped out if they did with a simple reference to Van-wijngaarden and Happers' paper on radiative transfer - if they could understand the mathematics, which I doubt. https://co2coalition.org/publications/van-wijngaarden-and-happer-radiative-transfer-paper-for-five-greenhouse-gases-explained/ and https://co2coalition.org/publications/nitrous-oxide-and-climate/.

There is, however, a good and rare publication by Andy May, 'The Great Climate Change Debate,' Karoly Vs Happer, in which the scientific arguments of each side and the supporting evidence are put forward aptly by Andy May, a retired petro-physicist. (andymaypetrophysicist.com).

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How do we know that a little warming will be bad, let alone noticed? There is no climate emergency and there are no functional, or affordable, alternatives to fossil fuels if we want to avoid poverty and control over our lives by sociopaths. If, and only if, man made climate change (global warming) is real then it would be better to spend on limiting damage and making sure even the poorest amongst us can live decent lives. A lot cheaper too!

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Dear Mr. Henry, a while back the economist Richard Tol did some calculations and figured that, even if global warming does continue at the pace seen over the last thirty years or so, the effects will be net beneficial for at least the next fifty years. Longer growing seasons for crops, less cold weather deaths, etc. The only justification for extreme measures to suppress GHG emissions is the evidence-free narrative of extreme weather being worsened by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

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Roger, I just got a piece from Kenneth Green of the Fraser Institute. He must be reading your essays here on The Honest Broker because he is of the opinion that the present state of extreme weather data does not justify the use of the term "climate crisis". www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/extreme-weather-and-climate-change.pdf.

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The only emergency is the internal Democratic outlook for their success in the coming presidential election. At this point Biden and his team will do whatever they think will buy them votes, no matter whether it is good for the country or not! What a sad development for the country.

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The only danger we face is from climate change policy.

Climate change to date has been entirely beneficial with no detectable downside.

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It's a lot more than climate change danger we face. Same Globalitarian Misanthropists orchestrating all the risks we all face. Endless Wars --> Global Nuclear War. Deadly Plandemics and engineered Chimera Viruses. Climate Change policies. Energy policies. Contrived CyberAttack / Internet Emergencies. Obscene levels of Censorship. Central Bank Digital Currencies. Financial System Collapse due to massive Debt Money expansion. No wonder people are afraid to have children nowadays. Add exponential population collapse to that list.

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This is all about supporting the narrative, allowing all sorts of ridiculous ideas to proceed because once you have an 'emergency" you must be evil to oppose any action.

As with everything else, this declaration will encourage and assist passage of terrible, counter-productive policy where all the wrong people are getting rich and real problems are ignored and should therefore be opposed strenuously.

And there is no need to "rapidly decarbonize" anything.

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We need to simply spend more on 'scrubbing' technology whereby particulate matter, SO2, NOs, and other bad stuff are removed from coal-burning plants. High-tech coal-fired plants have been developed in China which have cleaned up their cities vastly. The West needs to grow up and understand that we are fortunate to be warming a little, that it is not CO2 gas that is significantly driving the warming, and that there is no climate emergency; and if there was an emergency, there is nothing we could do about it.

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Couldn’t agree more

If the west doesnt move to nuclear then we will be forced back to coal

Unless someone figures out fusion and I won’t hold my breath there.

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In the Declaration of Independence Jefferson railed against the merciless Indian Savages and the despotism of the King of Great Britain.

The constitution created a president much more powerful than King George whose only substantial role in the war was to forbid any settlement west of the Appalachians (to protect the natives) which infuriated wealthy colonists.

Emergency powers were generally invoked in times of war but climate appears to be a very special emergency which supersedes all human activity.

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False. The American Revolution was started by King George through his imposition of the Currency Act, which forbade the colonies from printing their own currencies, which enabled the colonies to prosper.

Benjamin Franklin quote: "...“You see, a legitimate government can both spend and lend money into circulation, while banks can only lend significant amounts of their promissory bank notes, for they can neither give away nor spend but a tiny fraction of the money the people need. Thus, when your bankers here in England place money in circulation, there is always a debt principal to be returned and usury to be paid. The result is that you have always too little credit in circulation to give the workers full employment. You do not have too many workers, you have too little money in circulation, and that [money] which circulates all bears the endless burden of unpayable debt and usury…..In the Colonies, we issue our own money. It is called Colonial Scrip [interest-free, wealth-based money issued by The Colonies 1750-1764 before Bank of England crooks made it illegal]. We issue it in proper proportion to make the products pass easily from the producers to the consumers. In this manner, creating ourselves our own paper money, we control its purchasing power, and we have no interest to pay to no one.”

The following year, King George III passed the Currency act which outlawed all forms of money in the colonies, forcing them to conduct all commerce using bank notes borrowed at interest from the Bank of England!..."

And we've seen how "powerful" the US president is. The current one is a zombie and yet the government continues exactly as the Establishment wants. Endless War -- check. Covid Tyranny -- check. Massive Debt Financing -- check. Uncontrolled Immigration check.

And mostly Trump was forced to spend much of his time facing lawsuits and impeachment efforts, illegal spying and warrants, and obscene manipulation by the Deep State. Some power that is.

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Biden may be a figurehead for powerful forces but through the office of president they have enormous influence over the world. Outside America we know the names of the presidents but congressmen and senators are pretty much unknown. P.S.

‘If the Nuremberg laws were applied, then every post-war American president would have been hanged’.

Noam Chomsky

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Let me try and make my position clear.

King George did not decide to pass that act. Britain was a parliamentary democracy at that time with a prime minister (Lord North*). All the arguments with Britain were with parliament who passed that and other acts that upset the colonists. The King, like now formally agreed to these laws.

In America the president is responsible for carrying out acts of congress but also the day to day running of the country. The president is probably the most powerful public political figure in the America , King Charles is a figurehead with no formal political power.

* Lord North tried to resign before his resignation but the king refused to accept it. The colonists had a lot of support amongst the political and military class.

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Undoubtedly the president is the most powerful public official in America, but as we are seeing that can be subverted almost totally by Financial Interests, to the point that the US President is a bit of a joke, a laughing stock on the international stage.

And now we are seeing in Brazil the President is lower influence than a supreme court judge.

By having unlimited capital, capital our Overlords get to create out of thin air, even the "all powerful" President can be made impotent, simply by buying most of the senior people who control the apparatus of government. That is the overwhelming problem right now, a survive-or-perish problem for all of humanity. A benevolent, powerful President would be one possible way out of the mess we are in.

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Just heard on the news that the Biden administration is about to announce the cancellation of the National Petroleum Reserve and a critical road to a large copper deposit, both in Alaska. If true, it would seem the policy incoherence is nearly complete. How is the deep decarbonization via electrification of everything to be accomplished, if copper production cannnot be increased? The National Petroleum Reserve was established 100 years ago specifically to serve the nation's need for crude oil. That need still exists since fossil fuels presently furnish something like 85% of the nation's energy needs. This appears to be a policy guaranteed to reduce the nation's energy supply, increase inflation, decrease strategic options on the world stage and put top-spin on the nation's decline.

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Thankfully you vote no on the three questions.

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Someone should show Biden today's article by Ruy Teixeira in the Liberal Patriot. He argues that Democrats must become energy realists because it is in their best political interests. So no need for a declaration of emergency. Phew!!!

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It would be nice if they did it because it was in the interests of the nation and its citizens.

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That would be awesome! Unfortunately they don’t distinguish between what is good for the country and good for the Dems.

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Apr 18Liked by Roger Pielke Jr.

Well done!

I was a little disappointed in your belief "that pragmatic policies supporting accelerated accelerated decarbonization make excellent sense." (I'm assuming the double "accelerated" is your mind stuttering.) If we're going to do it, then let's have a solid plan. California certainly thinks it has accelerated decarbonization, but it's been at the cost of ever-more-frequent brownouts (and if Diablo Canyon actually closes in 2030, I predict blackouts).

The problem is two-fold - skyrocketing demand, and the problems with increasing capacity.

• Demand. Over the last 50 years, California's demand for electricity has increased almost linearly. However, mandates forcing the electrification of transportation and the blooming of data centers across the state and country make it easy to project a spike in demand (perhaps doubling) in the next decade. At the same time, fossil plants (natural gas currently provides about a third of CA's electricity) are being forced to retire. San Onofre nuclear station was closed in 2013; at the time it provided about 1/6 of CA's electric needs. CA's high electric rates also partially reflect the state's need to purchase power on spot markets - about 25% of its electricity is imported (mostly from the Pacific NW, but some from Mexico). Diablo Canyon provides about 10% of CA's electricity, but is now scheduled to close in 2030.

• Increasing capacity. There are really only two options – more renewables (the favored choice of the enviro cult) or more nuclear. CA's brownouts has brought attention to an interesting problem with renewables. In olden times (around Y2K) if you had enough power to cover peak demand (around 3-5 pm), you had enough power to cover the entire day. Starting in 2020, the increase in renewables and the overall increase in demand meant the system operators had enough power to cover peak demand, but if the weather didn't cooperate then there wasn't enough electricity to meet the demand of people coming home, plugging in their cars, turning on their ACs, after the peak. Hence the brownouts that started in 2020 and have occurred sporadically since.

If we increase the fraction of renewables we just increase the system's vulnerability to hot, cloudy, windless days. Further, few people seem to be concerned about the land needed for renewables. Diablo Canyon's power production site takes up about 0.01 sq mi. Using the best estimates I can find, that translates into about 28 sq mi for a solar replacement; and, of course, this doesn't take into account solar's intermittency. It would take about 4X that much to actually match Diablo Canyon's (or that of a fossil fuel plant) output. And then we would need batteries to store the solar-generated power.

Batteries have their own problems. They're expensive - really expensive: the 680 MW Nova Power Bank will cost over $1 B, and it would take at least three of these for our notional renewable replacement for Diablo Canyon. And it will only provide that power for a period of four hours - if you need more, forget it.

In principle, nuclear is the answer. No CO2, and a minuscule amount of waste. However, as I know all too well from the $9 B fiasco with the failed Sumner plant expansion here in SC, these projects are fiscally and legally vulnerable. I love the concept of the small nukes, but they won't be around until the '30's.

So. I'm left with my original question to add to your three: What do you mean by "acceleration?"

Compared to what? On what timetable? With what money?

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LOL, thanks for the eagle eyes! Corrected.

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