p.s. you might add modules to the course about ice ages, and the benefits that may come to some areas because of higher temperatures and higher CO2 (or both). I'm continually amazed how there is no "NO' good news about climate -- only death and destruction get covered, breathlessly.
We are very happy to have found your column and read some sense on the highly complex climate issue! That being said, I do have a thought for a crying need you might put your hand to. First reporters and then the public desperately need some help understanding:
1. How are weather and climate different?
2. How are weather and climate forecasting different?
3. What are the inputs and outputs of the climate models in use by the IPCC?
4. What climate model has best ever tied to past observations and:
a. How long did it attempt to forecast forward?
b. What were its geographic parameters?
I could see you putting together a class for reporters and making it available online. People always learn best when there are exercises and so forth, but I bet you could come up with some. I see this need as arising out of the difficulty we are about to find ourselves in having spent much of the no-cost money decade of the 2010's hyping the "existential" danger of climate change and now running into the deadly combination of far more expensive money and the end of low-cost trial runs at 'renewable resources'. With a higher amount of renewables and higher cost money, first electric utilities and then many others are going to find out that this big, scary thing can't be 'addressed' cheaply and will simultaneously feel bad and rebel. If someone has laid the groundwork for a deeper, better understanding of weather, climate, modeling and so forth, I think this will go more smoothly. Staffers to our elected representatives might also be part of the market for such work, along with the p politicians themselves if they actually want to learn. Anyway, just a thought!
Prodigious and effective work you are doing, Roger, please stay well and keep the wise writings coming to us. I am pleased to support your endeavors, but wish some of your counsel were heeded in my state.
The Vermont Legislature is oh-so-green but heedless of the consequences of its green agenda, clueless of what a rational low-carbon energy policy could be, hell-bent on eliminating fossil fuels but with a substitution of only expensive, unreliable wind,solar, plus more conservation, and lower living standards. VT is becoming a microcosm of what the radical greens want the rest of the country to become.
Good modes of communication need to float pretty much near the surface where they can be tapped by ordinary citizens. Media that reach out to grab ankles and threaten to pull the poor reader under are worse than useless. In my addled mind, the Twitter thread was one such, and in the final telling may prove to be one of the "features" that pulled Twitter under. Substack is different, its usefulness (to spreading good information) may be it its facility for mediating production of good new books - let's hope Roger's sequel is one such, and soon.
Going by the new titles on offer at the bookstore, it's never been easier to pump out a book. These days, though, an author needs to be willing to put on a song 'n dance at TED, to grace the TV panel shows with fabulous hair and brilliant teeth, and have a gorgeous voice for reading their audiobook. Those accoutrements, though, have bugger-all to do with the actual scholarship sunk into a useful advancement of Science. I'm taken with the German for Science - Wissenschaft , as in Max Weber's 'Science as Vocation' - which speaks to on ongoing process of divining truth. On my bookshelf the Weber booklet nestles close to Timothy Snyder's 'On Tyranny'.
As if you haven't enough on your plate.. I think there might be a challenge to develop a different kind of learning institution, call it the People's Lifelong Learning University. Teachers offer courses at rates they determine. Students enroll. Perhaps 5% for admin. I'd gladly teach and learn at such an institution, plus it would be great to have access to a university library and academic journals online (perhaps just for teachers?).
Why do the media always fail to mention that our planet has only a single atmosphere and that shifting the emissions burden from California to Venezuela is really a net zero. This is virtue signaling for idiots.
Your list of topics in the cue sound great! But here is a topic, maybe not in your ball park, but one that I am curious about: What is the effect of elevated CO2 levels on the biosphere, on plant growth, etc.? How has surface warming and other changes impacted agriculture at a global level? What we seem to get is a thousand articles about the negative effects, real and imagined, of climate change, but not a balanced evaluation of its overall impact on the biosphere.
As a plant scientist, I would say that that is a hard question for anyone including Roger. If we want to know the effects of CO2 on plants, there are many greenhouse studies. BUT when it comes to agriculture, it's got to be specific to certain farmers in certain places. Are they growing different crops? Are they growing different varieties? How have their practices changed? Is that due to heat/drought or other (market) factors? And last but not least, but perhaps Roger territory, is how much of the heat or drought is due to anthropogenic forcings, and which ones? Not to wax epistemological but "the global level" is nothing but the average of millions of farmers in different areas making decisions. People think you can learn about something solely top down, but I don't think that is true. I think you need to start by talking to farmers and where they exist, extention specialists.
A good deal has been made of the 'greening of the Sahel', and more general global greenery, as evidence of the fertilisation effects of higher CO2 levels. I believe the aerial photography evidence is quite convincing that there is at least some kind of effect, but I would like to be more convinced that CO2 is necessarily the cause.
Happy to support your work, Roger, considering that you’ve been instrumental in getting me to see climate and energy in a new light.
Your mention of your age and potential career adjustment prompts me to recommend Arthur C. Brooks’ book From Strength to Strength to anyone in that boat (all of us eventually). It is wonderful, wise and succinct.
Appreciate your work Roger, happy to provide some small level of support. Definitely not interested in partisan red meat. Don’t need lots of articles. Someone actually doing what the general public believes journalists do, reading, summarising on this important topic of climate is of great value.
p.s. you might add modules to the course about ice ages, and the benefits that may come to some areas because of higher temperatures and higher CO2 (or both). I'm continually amazed how there is no "NO' good news about climate -- only death and destruction get covered, breathlessly.
We are very happy to have found your column and read some sense on the highly complex climate issue! That being said, I do have a thought for a crying need you might put your hand to. First reporters and then the public desperately need some help understanding:
1. How are weather and climate different?
2. How are weather and climate forecasting different?
3. What are the inputs and outputs of the climate models in use by the IPCC?
4. What climate model has best ever tied to past observations and:
a. How long did it attempt to forecast forward?
b. What were its geographic parameters?
I could see you putting together a class for reporters and making it available online. People always learn best when there are exercises and so forth, but I bet you could come up with some. I see this need as arising out of the difficulty we are about to find ourselves in having spent much of the no-cost money decade of the 2010's hyping the "existential" danger of climate change and now running into the deadly combination of far more expensive money and the end of low-cost trial runs at 'renewable resources'. With a higher amount of renewables and higher cost money, first electric utilities and then many others are going to find out that this big, scary thing can't be 'addressed' cheaply and will simultaneously feel bad and rebel. If someone has laid the groundwork for a deeper, better understanding of weather, climate, modeling and so forth, I think this will go more smoothly. Staffers to our elected representatives might also be part of the market for such work, along with the p politicians themselves if they actually want to learn. Anyway, just a thought!
Prodigious and effective work you are doing, Roger, please stay well and keep the wise writings coming to us. I am pleased to support your endeavors, but wish some of your counsel were heeded in my state.
The Vermont Legislature is oh-so-green but heedless of the consequences of its green agenda, clueless of what a rational low-carbon energy policy could be, hell-bent on eliminating fossil fuels but with a substitution of only expensive, unreliable wind,solar, plus more conservation, and lower living standards. VT is becoming a microcosm of what the radical greens want the rest of the country to become.
Congratulations on two years. Time sure does fly.
Thanks Joe!
Good modes of communication need to float pretty much near the surface where they can be tapped by ordinary citizens. Media that reach out to grab ankles and threaten to pull the poor reader under are worse than useless. In my addled mind, the Twitter thread was one such, and in the final telling may prove to be one of the "features" that pulled Twitter under. Substack is different, its usefulness (to spreading good information) may be it its facility for mediating production of good new books - let's hope Roger's sequel is one such, and soon.
Going by the new titles on offer at the bookstore, it's never been easier to pump out a book. These days, though, an author needs to be willing to put on a song 'n dance at TED, to grace the TV panel shows with fabulous hair and brilliant teeth, and have a gorgeous voice for reading their audiobook. Those accoutrements, though, have bugger-all to do with the actual scholarship sunk into a useful advancement of Science. I'm taken with the German for Science - Wissenschaft , as in Max Weber's 'Science as Vocation' - which speaks to on ongoing process of divining truth. On my bookshelf the Weber booklet nestles close to Timothy Snyder's 'On Tyranny'.
Further to effective communication, in this podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/medicine-and-the-machine/id1470296733?i=1000587305078 two eminent medical scientists (Topol & Greenhalgh) discuss a recent fatal flaw in application of knowledge. One of them (TG) lauds Twitter.
(But, see how the site promises a full transcript at https://www.medscape.com/features/public/machine but fails to deliver.)
As if you haven't enough on your plate.. I think there might be a challenge to develop a different kind of learning institution, call it the People's Lifelong Learning University. Teachers offer courses at rates they determine. Students enroll. Perhaps 5% for admin. I'd gladly teach and learn at such an institution, plus it would be great to have access to a university library and academic journals online (perhaps just for teachers?).
A great idea
I wonder what the market might be for a freelance course from a subject matter expert
I think this was tried by universities with the MOOC model which seems to have come and gone
Thank you for your intelligent and well-informed writing on your several valuable topics.
Thank you!
Why do the media always fail to mention that our planet has only a single atmosphere and that shifting the emissions burden from California to Venezuela is really a net zero. This is virtue signaling for idiots.
Please take care with the insults. Not the voice I want here, thanks!
Or it could be worse because of regulations in different countries, costs and risks of transport, etc.
Your list of topics in the cue sound great! But here is a topic, maybe not in your ball park, but one that I am curious about: What is the effect of elevated CO2 levels on the biosphere, on plant growth, etc.? How has surface warming and other changes impacted agriculture at a global level? What we seem to get is a thousand articles about the negative effects, real and imagined, of climate change, but not a balanced evaluation of its overall impact on the biosphere.
A worthy topic, but not in my wheelhouse. My dad is actually a global expert on this so mayber I'll ask him to do some guest posts!
As a plant scientist, I would say that that is a hard question for anyone including Roger. If we want to know the effects of CO2 on plants, there are many greenhouse studies. BUT when it comes to agriculture, it's got to be specific to certain farmers in certain places. Are they growing different crops? Are they growing different varieties? How have their practices changed? Is that due to heat/drought or other (market) factors? And last but not least, but perhaps Roger territory, is how much of the heat or drought is due to anthropogenic forcings, and which ones? Not to wax epistemological but "the global level" is nothing but the average of millions of farmers in different areas making decisions. People think you can learn about something solely top down, but I don't think that is true. I think you need to start by talking to farmers and where they exist, extention specialists.
A good deal has been made of the 'greening of the Sahel', and more general global greenery, as evidence of the fertilisation effects of higher CO2 levels. I believe the aerial photography evidence is quite convincing that there is at least some kind of effect, but I would like to be more convinced that CO2 is necessarily the cause.
As I said back when you started on Substack Roger, you are going to have 15 years of fame. Congratulation from the Frozen Tubdra.
Very kind. Stay warm!
YES, there is an audience for "deep dives, wonkery and heterodox thinking."
Great summation of why I subscribe.
You are my people ;-)
Happy to support your work, Roger, considering that you’ve been instrumental in getting me to see climate and energy in a new light.
Your mention of your age and potential career adjustment prompts me to recommend Arthur C. Brooks’ book From Strength to Strength to anyone in that boat (all of us eventually). It is wonderful, wise and succinct.
Looking forward to all the good stuff ahead!
Thanks! Clarke was a favorite of mine growing up for sure.
Thanks for recommending Brooks' book. It's time for me to read it.
Appreciate your work Roger, happy to provide some small level of support. Definitely not interested in partisan red meat. Don’t need lots of articles. Someone actually doing what the general public believes journalists do, reading, summarising on this important topic of climate is of great value.
Thank you!