Prediction is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future
Grades are in for the 2024 THB Home Office Pool
Nothing is more humbling predicting the future and then evaluating how things turned out. Today I take a look back at last year’s 2024 THB Home Office Pool which asked for prognostications for how 2024 might turn out across an eclectic set of 10 questions.
I share my grades below — 4.5 points out of possible 10, with one point resulting from a bad question on the exam (it happens!). Many of my misses were big misses. How did you do? Let me know in the comments.
Next week I’ll be posting the 2025 THB Home Office Pool — I invite your suggestions for questions to include (as well as pointers o the data to be used to evaluate responses, one year from now).
A lot of my work across my career has involved studying predictions — how we make them, how we use them, how we evaluate them. Some of my favorites from the archives:
I was surprised to learn that the final score of the FA Cup championship match did better at predicting U.S. hurricane damage later that year than did dynamical or statistical models.
Pielke Jr, R. A. (2009). United States hurricane landfalls and damages: Can one-to five-year predictions beat climatology?. Environmental Hazards, 8(3), 187-200. (PDF)
I was among the first to evaluate IPCC assessment projections of global average surface temperature and sea level rise against observations, finding that these projections were in general pretty good, but they did not show systematic improvement from the IPCC FAR to AR4. Our recent evaluation of IPCC scenarios found that almost all of those used by the IPCC are well out-of-date, projecting future more extreme than we might expect with more plausible scenarios.
Pielke Jr, R. A. (2008). Climate predictions and observations. Nature Geoscience, 1(4), 206-206.
Pielke Jr, R., Burgess, M. G., & Ritchie, J. (2022). Plausible 2005-2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 and 3 degrees C of warming by 2100. Environmental Research Letters.
A little recognized aspect of the politics of science is the conflict between scientists who want to produce predictions (using highly complex and costly models) and policy makers who want information that informs decision making. Scientists often argue that these are the same thing — But in reality, good decision making does not always require sophisticated predictions, creating a political tension.
Sarewitz, D., & Pielke Jr, R. (1999). Prediction in science and policy. Technology in Society, 21(2), 121-133.
On to the grades! Below in italics are the questions from the 2024 THB Home Office Pool. Below each question is the correct answer and my grade. How’d you do?
In December 2024, who will be the president-elect of the United States?
a. Joe Biden
b. Donald Trump
c. Someone else
Roger’s grade: I had selected c, someone else. I had a strong belief that Biden would not make it through the campaign, and guessed that his replacement would win the election. I’ll give myself half a point here.
U.S. 2024 federal elections will see Democrats:
a. Winning the House and Senate
b. Winning the House but not the Senate
c. Winning the Senate but not the House
d. Winning neither the House nor the Senate
Roger’s grade: I went with the status quo, c, following my guess that the Democrats would win the White House. The Senate swung to the Republicans who also held the House. The correct answer was d. Another half point for me.
The DJIA is over 37,000 on the last trading day of 2023. On the last trading day of 2024 it will be:
a. <35,000
b. 35,000-38,000
c. 38,000-41,000
d. >41,000
Roger’s grade: Obviously, I’m not very good at finance prognostications! I picked b. As I write this the Dow sits above 43,000 after a big year for many of the biggest companies — d was the correct answer. Zero points.
In December 2024, Russia’s war on Ukraine will be:
a. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)
b. In a cease-fire
c. Continuing (much as in December 2022 and December 2023)
d. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving NATO or nuclear weapons)
Roger’s grade: Maybe this one was easy, but I picked c, continuing as before — which is indeed where the conflict is at. One point.
In December 2024, the military conflict in Gaza will be:
a. Over (e.g., a peace agreement or a victor)
b. In a cease-fire
c. Continuing (much as in December 2023)
d. Escalated (e.g., perhaps involving other combatants)
Roger’s grade: The correct answer is d. I did not foresee the conflict continuing through the year, much less escalating. Zero points.
Compared to 2023, in 2024, global fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will:
a. increase and increase
b. increase and decrease
c. decrease and increase
d. decrease and decrease
e. both will be within measurement error
Roger’s grade: The answer is technically e, within measurement error — Global Carbon Project has projected carbon dioxide emissions in 2024 increased by 0.8% and fossil fuels also increased — coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%). These estimates are accurate to within +/- 5%, so the long plateau continues. That said I’d accept a. as correct as well. One point.
According to NADA, through the first 11 months of 2023, auto dealers sold 1,007,984 battery electric vehicles in the United States. Through the first 11 months of 2024 the number of sales will be:
a. <1,000,000
b. 1,000,000-1,200,000 (yoy growth of 0-20%)
c. 1,200,000-1,500,000 (yoy growth of 20-50%)
d. >1,500,000 (yoy growth of >50%)
Roger’s grade: I was too bullish, going with d. According to NADA, year-over-year sales of EVs in the US increased by about 8% through October, 2024, and represent about 8% of overall year-to-date light vehicle sales. EVs are here to stay. The correct answer was b. Zero points.
Which of these teams will win a championship? (Or enter your own guesses in the comments)
a. EPL: Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City
b. NFL: Baltimore, Miami, San Francisco, Philadelphia [Kansas City]
c. NCAA Volleyball (W): Texas, Nebraska, Stanford, Tennessee [Penn State]
d. Bundesliga: Leverkusen, Bayern, Stuttgart
e. NBA: Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nuggets
f. CFB: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Colorado [TBD]
g. Bundesliga 2: Holstein Kiel, St. Pauli, Hamburg SV, Düsseldorf
h. NCAA Women March Madness: South Carolina, Iowa, NC State, Colorado
i. League or competition of your choice?
Roger’s grade: I’ve bolded the actual champions above. I got Leverkusen and St. Pauli — which probably reflects that I watch too much German football! Anyone who got 2+ correct can claim half a point. Four or more deserves a full point. Half for me.
Which country will win the most Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
a. United States
b. China
c. Russia (aka ROC)
d. France+Germany+Italy+Netherlands
e. Other?
Roger’s grade: This one was tricky. The correct answer was d, with these four nations combining for 55 Gold Medals. The US and China tied at 40 each. Russia won one Gold in trampoline (technically not Russia, but an “Individual Neutral Athlete”). Zero points for me.
The country with the most doping positives in 2024 will be:
a. United States
b. The EU 27
c. Russia
d. Kenya
e. ROW
Roger’s grade: This turned out to be a dud of a question, because we won’t know the real answer for ten years, which is how long samples can be kept and tested. To date the ITA reports only four athletes suspended for violations at Paris 2024. Doping remains pervasive in Olympic sport. The professor is throwing this question out. Everyone gets a point.
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" EVs are here to stay ". Hmm. Possibly. Depends how much civil unrest governments are prepared to tolerate, as huge numbers of people see their freedom of mobility stolen from them. And see scarce electricity supplies diverted to EV charging ( in UK at least, where actual power stations are being closed in favour of Miliband's fantasy of renewables ) And other people see the value of their ' investment ' drop like a stone as second hand values of EVs plummet, when potential purchasers become aware of the likely need for hugely expensive replacement batteries. And perhaps even politicians will realise that a ' solution ' that can take 70,000 miles to achieve carbon parity with a proper car, at which point the prospect of battery replacement hoves into view and the massive CO2 emissions cycle starts again, isn't a solution at all. And let's not mention the Felicity Ace, or Gatwick airport carpark fires.
So yes, EVs are here to stay. As a status symbol for rich, virtue-signalling socialists / Democrats, and, here at least, in the form of the traditional battery-powered milk float. As a viable system of mass mobility or industrial transport? Probably not.
Not clear why you give yourself half points for some of your predictions were clearly wrong. Are you becoming an alarmist? The world wants to know!