This recalls 2005, after Wilma. This was going to be new normal (2005 year). Then what happened?
If I have it right, 11 years + 10 mos consecutive without a cat 3 or higher hitting US coasts out of Atlantic basic as I recall.
If I'm not mistaken, that broke the old record for consecutive years in the basin without a "major", not by a month or a year but by about double (~6 years). Which had existed for around 100 years (since Galveston maybe?).
While the graphs don't seem to indicate this, I have to ask: is there any trend of increased volatility? As you may remember, last year I hypothesized that because CO2 generated in China or India might not reach the US for a year or so, this might imply greater variability in its effects even if the average stayed virtually the same. The analogy is to a glassmaking furnace in which there is great variability in composition until the tank becomes well-mixed.
Do climate models incorporate or account for ACE? How is ACE accounted for in global energy balances? Are you aware of on-going research that considers climate modeling from a strict energy balance perspective?
Superb, Roger and Ryan.
This recalls 2005, after Wilma. This was going to be new normal (2005 year). Then what happened?
If I have it right, 11 years + 10 mos consecutive without a cat 3 or higher hitting US coasts out of Atlantic basic as I recall.
If I'm not mistaken, that broke the old record for consecutive years in the basin without a "major", not by a month or a year but by about double (~6 years). Which had existed for around 100 years (since Galveston maybe?).
While the graphs don't seem to indicate this, I have to ask: is there any trend of increased volatility? As you may remember, last year I hypothesized that because CO2 generated in China or India might not reach the US for a year or so, this might imply greater variability in its effects even if the average stayed virtually the same. The analogy is to a glassmaking furnace in which there is great variability in composition until the tank becomes well-mixed.
Do climate models incorporate or account for ACE? How is ACE accounted for in global energy balances? Are you aware of on-going research that considers climate modeling from a strict energy balance perspective?
Roger, would you be so kind to ruminate on the Biochar issue?
Is there an “accumulated precipitation” metric for TCs? Any opinion on how it would be trending?
The NOAA hurricane records go back to about 1850. If 170 years is not enough data, how many years do we need to see?
"In 2022 there were 18 total landfalling tropical cyclones of at least hurricane strength around the world, of which 5 were major hurricanes."
Is this supposed to say 13 rather than 18? That's what is shown in the chart.
Have you sent a copy of this to Bill Nye, given his misconceptions on the subject?