Roger, the parallels between the IIPCC politicians and the truth compared with Mr. Bates versus the Post Office are stunning. You may have a 20 year struggle on your hands, but as the British say, “the truth will out”. The current culture of lies and intimidation must be exposed and opposed. Don’t let the Post Office win. Hang in there…we need men of integrity like you who have a voice.
It’s a dirty job Professor but someone has to do it and unfortunately, you are the perfect one. However, reading and seeing what has been done to you professionally, and personally I believe you could bring a defamation of character lawsuit against pretty much everyone on the wrong side. this seems like a slam dunk case.
Thank you that was an excellent article. Learned a lot. Scares me a little to think that are fate is in the hands of politicians however. Funny you give me ammunition when speaking to climate fanatics however they completely shut down when presented with the facts.
Very interesting. Definitely a major reform is needed. The whole process seems to have become overly biased and politized by the presence so much public money and special interests. Keep up the good work Roger.
Roger - Thanks for posting the London debate. As a broadcast meteorologist we are bombarded by many entities, including the AMS- that the evidence is not up for debate and it is expected that we will “fall in line”. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see a real debate - covered by mainstream media - featuring both sides of the argument for all to see and decide on their own.
You also mentioned last email that you would be covered by PBS in an exchange with Dr. Scott Tinker and Shellenberger. Can you post that? I couldn't find it.
Roger you are way too polite. Early in the podcast you mention there was some politics going on but in reality we are talking of intellectual dishonesty if not blunt corruption. Then there is the issue of what you call IPCC mistakes: genuine mistakes would be random. The IPCC mistakes instead are always one sided. So they are not mistakes anymore but a clear communication strategy. Finally the enemy of science are correlation and deduction: I still remember a clear statement from NOAA saying that establishing causality between greenhouse emissions and increasing temperatures, in a complex system like global climate, was hard. The statement, very honest, is not there anymore.
It’s amazing to hear a Grauniad reporter actually be fair and balanced.
That would never happen today, you would have been debating 3 people today, or that reporter would be drawn, quartered and fired and would never work again.
And yes, of course you are Voldemort, because climate Scientology requires everything to be bad NOW. What you said then is the same thing that you say now, that it’s complicated where they want black and white.
The climate has changed in the last 200 years, no one disputes that, but can you point me to a paper or an MSM story in the last 5 years regarding a positive outcome of climate change?
We all know we are living in the best of times for human civilization so we know there must be some positives?
I really would like to read one, published by East Anglia and given space in the Guardian.
Thanks Roger, fascinating stuff. I am just an ex banker. Got a c- in science. So much of what is told to citizens today seems to be motivated by an agenda. It’s hard for me to rap my head around what the hell that is? Why is climate being used to in affect deprive vast populations of people from using fossil fuel? In NY they just outlawed new gas stoves and heating by 2026? How does this makes sense when we know the grid will not be able to handle the additional load? Please as a climate scientist will you shed some light on the WHY of all this?
I hate to be that professor who says go an read this as a reply to your question, but that is what I'm going to do! This piece by Patrick Brown at The Breakthrough Institute is spot on:
There's wildfires in Alberta, again. FT headline reports climate scientists are on alert. Body of report includes links to "studies" that allege links to climate change. If this is on topic wrt your current interests, here's the link:
99% started by people, a damp year last year means lots of fuel, a few hot days and a bunch of people rushing into the back country with their quads and campfires and flicking lit cigarettes everywhere and there you go.
Also a provincial election May 29, it’s not outside the bounds to assume some arson such as you’ve seen in the USA west in recent years.
Alas, but "If the IPCC didn't exist it would have to be invented", says Pielke Jr.
What is the IPCC other than a political committee with a mission to confirm the catastrophic viewpoints of its' founders. The scientists who contribute to the IPCC evaluations are just pawns to be manipulated, misquoted and maligned if non responsive. The IPCC is a smokescreen to provide cover for Guttierres, Kerry and Biden to make their idiotic statements. The IPCC is a perpetrator of disinformation.
Roger has been making the same points re natural disaster losses for almost 15 years (with ever improved data) and he continues to be ignored and/or vilified.
It would be interesting to hear your take on the question of 'cui bono'? It must be more than just insurance companies wanting to accrue super profits on tangible asset insurance. What are non-Western narratives on the IPCC failings?
May 13, 2023·edited May 13, 2023Liked by Roger Pielke Jr.
Interesting example of how criticism of some of the evidence gets unfairly presented as denial of the wider argument. Many of us in private discussions have been caught on that hook.
Perhaps most(?) lay people develop their opinions and ideas in the affective rather than the logical domain. Dramatic images of disaster swing the community attitude more strongly than logical/factual analysis. Pictures of storms and wild fires attract more readers to an article on climate than a graph. In this context scientistific voices (such as the IPCC) feel the need to feed material like this to the media in order to have an impact. In a cyclic way the wider community devour this emotionally charged material in the lay science media, and then claim to be "following the science".
You provide an example of where the science itself has been compromised by this need to feed the media a good story? Are there more examples, and what might be the end result of this approach on science? (I have a copy of 'The Honest Broker' on my bookshelf and I think I should read it now :-) )
For the record I am not a climate sceptic and I suppport the general message of the IPCC reports.
Thanks. Unfortunately, there are indeed many examples. The fact that these discussions need the sort of disclaimer you end with (which is the sort of thing I also always make explicit) indicates the severe social pressures that can be associated with discussing these issues.
May 13, 2023·edited May 13, 2023Liked by Roger Pielke Jr.
Excellent podcast.
While only a minor point, the discussion of the Himalayan glaciers brought back memories. I remember diving down that rabbit hole at the time. My current vague recollection is that there may have simply been a typo, with the year 2350 transmogrified into 2035. While I don't have definitive support for that possibility it ultimately doesn't matter, as the 2035 date came from New Scientist article by Fred Pearce, which doesn't meet IPCC's standards for inclusion. Still, I wondered where it came from. The article was an interview with Syed Hasnain, a respeccted scientist. The article attributes the date to Hasnian: "Hasnain’s four-year study indicates that all the glaciers in the central and eastern Himalayas could disappear by 2035 at their present rate of decline" but it is not supprted by a quote from a Hasnian paper, and Hasnian subsequently disputed the date noting that his papers don't have such dates. According to Ann Rowan, https://theconversation.com/two-thirds-of-glacier-ice-in-the-himalayas-will-be-lost-by-2100-if-climate-targets-arent-met-143207, Hasnian "misquoted another scientist’s work predicting glaciers worldwide would shrink by 80% by 2350." (Unfortunately, that claim is linked but it is a dead link. I'm not sure she got it right, I don't think Hasnian would have done that.) Another possibility is that Pearce had the article mentioning 2350, and mistakenly attributed it to Hasnian.
In any event, it was not an accurate scientific claim.
Thanks, I took a look at the old blogspot posts. You reminded me that while the original error outlined a need for better internal review procedures, the response when the error was pointed out was atrocious. It would've been so easy to explain that in a massive report with tens of thousands of words, finding a single mistaken phrase was unfortunate but inevitable. However, when the Indian environmental minister pushback on the report, Rajendra Pachauri's reaction was to double down on the IPCC. This means, not only did he fail to do any investigation, which would've overtaken a few minutes to uncover that the statement was in error, he tried to support a number that was so absurd anyone who knows anything about glaciers would recognize it is ludicrous. Which means the chairman of the IPCC doesn't know the subject matter. To be fair, the subject matter is a very broad field, and perhaps it's asking too much that the chair have even surface knowledge of all aspects, but any self-respecting chairman knows their own limitations and knows when they should check with experts before making strong pronouncements.
Roger, the parallels between the IIPCC politicians and the truth compared with Mr. Bates versus the Post Office are stunning. You may have a 20 year struggle on your hands, but as the British say, “the truth will out”. The current culture of lies and intimidation must be exposed and opposed. Don’t let the Post Office win. Hang in there…we need men of integrity like you who have a voice.
It’s a dirty job Professor but someone has to do it and unfortunately, you are the perfect one. However, reading and seeing what has been done to you professionally, and personally I believe you could bring a defamation of character lawsuit against pretty much everyone on the wrong side. this seems like a slam dunk case.
Thank you that was an excellent article. Learned a lot. Scares me a little to think that are fate is in the hands of politicians however. Funny you give me ammunition when speaking to climate fanatics however they completely shut down when presented with the facts.
Very interesting. Definitely a major reform is needed. The whole process seems to have become overly biased and politized by the presence so much public money and special interests. Keep up the good work Roger.
Thanks!!
Roger - Thanks for posting the London debate. As a broadcast meteorologist we are bombarded by many entities, including the AMS- that the evidence is not up for debate and it is expected that we will “fall in line”. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see a real debate - covered by mainstream media - featuring both sides of the argument for all to see and decide on their own.
Discussions of these topics used to be common at AMS and AGU. No more.
You also mentioned last email that you would be covered by PBS in an exchange with Dr. Scott Tinker and Shellenberger. Can you post that? I couldn't find it.
Thanks
Yes, PBS but not Shellenberger ... here is that episode:
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-good-news-about-climate-change
Roger you are way too polite. Early in the podcast you mention there was some politics going on but in reality we are talking of intellectual dishonesty if not blunt corruption. Then there is the issue of what you call IPCC mistakes: genuine mistakes would be random. The IPCC mistakes instead are always one sided. So they are not mistakes anymore but a clear communication strategy. Finally the enemy of science are correlation and deduction: I still remember a clear statement from NOAA saying that establishing causality between greenhouse emissions and increasing temperatures, in a complex system like global climate, was hard. The statement, very honest, is not there anymore.
There is definitely a failure of self-correction here, which I see as having multiple causes. No one in IPCC accuses me of being too polite ;-)
First off.
It’s amazing to hear a Grauniad reporter actually be fair and balanced.
That would never happen today, you would have been debating 3 people today, or that reporter would be drawn, quartered and fired and would never work again.
And yes, of course you are Voldemort, because climate Scientology requires everything to be bad NOW. What you said then is the same thing that you say now, that it’s complicated where they want black and white.
The climate has changed in the last 200 years, no one disputes that, but can you point me to a paper or an MSM story in the last 5 years regarding a positive outcome of climate change?
We all know we are living in the best of times for human civilization so we know there must be some positives?
I really would like to read one, published by East Anglia and given space in the Guardian.
Just one.
Thanks Roger, fascinating stuff. I am just an ex banker. Got a c- in science. So much of what is told to citizens today seems to be motivated by an agenda. It’s hard for me to rap my head around what the hell that is? Why is climate being used to in affect deprive vast populations of people from using fossil fuel? In NY they just outlawed new gas stoves and heating by 2026? How does this makes sense when we know the grid will not be able to handle the additional load? Please as a climate scientist will you shed some light on the WHY of all this?
I hate to be that professor who says go an read this as a reply to your question, but that is what I'm going to do! This piece by Patrick Brown at The Breakthrough Institute is spot on:
https://thebreakthrough.org/journal/climate-change-banned-words/science-climate-change
are these podcasts available on regular podcast apps? (if so, I couldn't find them).
In progress!
There's wildfires in Alberta, again. FT headline reports climate scientists are on alert. Body of report includes links to "studies" that allege links to climate change. If this is on topic wrt your current interests, here's the link:
https://www.ft.com/content/6adb3a9b-c31a-4a36-a45e-0f1239d98014
Thanks! I'll have a look. I should do a post on fires soon.
99% started by people, a damp year last year means lots of fuel, a few hot days and a bunch of people rushing into the back country with their quads and campfires and flicking lit cigarettes everywhere and there you go.
Also a provincial election May 29, it’s not outside the bounds to assume some arson such as you’ve seen in the USA west in recent years.
The NDP wants back in
Alas, but "If the IPCC didn't exist it would have to be invented", says Pielke Jr.
What is the IPCC other than a political committee with a mission to confirm the catastrophic viewpoints of its' founders. The scientists who contribute to the IPCC evaluations are just pawns to be manipulated, misquoted and maligned if non responsive. The IPCC is a smokescreen to provide cover for Guttierres, Kerry and Biden to make their idiotic statements. The IPCC is a perpetrator of disinformation.
Roger has been making the same points re natural disaster losses for almost 15 years (with ever improved data) and he continues to be ignored and/or vilified.
It would be interesting to hear your take on the question of 'cui bono'? It must be more than just insurance companies wanting to accrue super profits on tangible asset insurance. What are non-Western narratives on the IPCC failings?
Jessica Weinkle examining this issue.
https://jessicaweinkle.substack.com/p/its-okay-to-scrutinize-insurance/comments
excellent , stuff for a Netflix serie
Thanks!
Interesting example of how criticism of some of the evidence gets unfairly presented as denial of the wider argument. Many of us in private discussions have been caught on that hook.
Perhaps most(?) lay people develop their opinions and ideas in the affective rather than the logical domain. Dramatic images of disaster swing the community attitude more strongly than logical/factual analysis. Pictures of storms and wild fires attract more readers to an article on climate than a graph. In this context scientistific voices (such as the IPCC) feel the need to feed material like this to the media in order to have an impact. In a cyclic way the wider community devour this emotionally charged material in the lay science media, and then claim to be "following the science".
You provide an example of where the science itself has been compromised by this need to feed the media a good story? Are there more examples, and what might be the end result of this approach on science? (I have a copy of 'The Honest Broker' on my bookshelf and I think I should read it now :-) )
For the record I am not a climate sceptic and I suppport the general message of the IPCC reports.
Thanks. Unfortunately, there are indeed many examples. The fact that these discussions need the sort of disclaimer you end with (which is the sort of thing I also always make explicit) indicates the severe social pressures that can be associated with discussing these issues.
How much good does the disclaimer do? Better to deal with the "social pressures" directly.
Didn’t do Susan Crockford any good.
As noted, Roger had to leave his position or the school would get a steel jacket behind the ear.
“Science”.
Excellent podcast.
While only a minor point, the discussion of the Himalayan glaciers brought back memories. I remember diving down that rabbit hole at the time. My current vague recollection is that there may have simply been a typo, with the year 2350 transmogrified into 2035. While I don't have definitive support for that possibility it ultimately doesn't matter, as the 2035 date came from New Scientist article by Fred Pearce, which doesn't meet IPCC's standards for inclusion. Still, I wondered where it came from. The article was an interview with Syed Hasnain, a respeccted scientist. The article attributes the date to Hasnian: "Hasnain’s four-year study indicates that all the glaciers in the central and eastern Himalayas could disappear by 2035 at their present rate of decline" but it is not supprted by a quote from a Hasnian paper, and Hasnian subsequently disputed the date noting that his papers don't have such dates. According to Ann Rowan, https://theconversation.com/two-thirds-of-glacier-ice-in-the-himalayas-will-be-lost-by-2100-if-climate-targets-arent-met-143207, Hasnian "misquoted another scientist’s work predicting glaciers worldwide would shrink by 80% by 2350." (Unfortunately, that claim is linked but it is a dead link. I'm not sure she got it right, I don't think Hasnian would have done that.) Another possibility is that Pearce had the article mentioning 2350, and mistakenly attributed it to Hasnian.
In any event, it was not an accurate scientific claim.
Thanks. I have a bunch of material on my old blogspot from back in the day that explored the glacier issue in depth, FYI.
Thanks, I took a look at the old blogspot posts. You reminded me that while the original error outlined a need for better internal review procedures, the response when the error was pointed out was atrocious. It would've been so easy to explain that in a massive report with tens of thousands of words, finding a single mistaken phrase was unfortunate but inevitable. However, when the Indian environmental minister pushback on the report, Rajendra Pachauri's reaction was to double down on the IPCC. This means, not only did he fail to do any investigation, which would've overtaken a few minutes to uncover that the statement was in error, he tried to support a number that was so absurd anyone who knows anything about glaciers would recognize it is ludicrous. Which means the chairman of the IPCC doesn't know the subject matter. To be fair, the subject matter is a very broad field, and perhaps it's asking too much that the chair have even surface knowledge of all aspects, but any self-respecting chairman knows their own limitations and knows when they should check with experts before making strong pronouncements.