Rejecting RCP8.5 is one thing we can agree on. Expecting the signatories to the Paris accord is to keep their commitments is another. The UK and EU are already rolling back their commitments to ban ICE vehicle sales and natural gas heating after 2030 and require 100% sales of EVs and use of heat pumps for heating homes.
In that light a long plateau of CO2 emissions at around 40 Gtonnes does not look unrealistic.
Are you confident that China, India and Africa will reduce the use of coal, oil and natural gas even if developed Western economies do reduce their use of fossil fuels.
All that will happen is that the price of fossil fuels will go down and usage wi
ll stay firm whilst the cost of energy in Western economies goes up.
Take a look at Russian oil production before and after Ukraine sanctions. 9.6 million barrels per day before , 9.5 million barrels per day after. Russian revenue has declined, but the beneficiaries have been China and India buying up cheaper oil.
Developing countries will choose the cheapest form of energy to grow their economies
Unless carbon free baseload power becomes cheaper than coal and gas, emissions will not decline.
So RCP4.5 to RCP 6.0 looks realistic, the EIA NZE report projecting a renewable technology path to RCP2.6 is based on Paris Accord commitments which will not be met.
The totally captured IEA.
Rejecting RCP8.5 is one thing we can agree on. Expecting the signatories to the Paris accord is to keep their commitments is another. The UK and EU are already rolling back their commitments to ban ICE vehicle sales and natural gas heating after 2030 and require 100% sales of EVs and use of heat pumps for heating homes.
In that light a long plateau of CO2 emissions at around 40 Gtonnes does not look unrealistic.
Are you confident that China, India and Africa will reduce the use of coal, oil and natural gas even if developed Western economies do reduce their use of fossil fuels.
All that will happen is that the price of fossil fuels will go down and usage wi
ll stay firm whilst the cost of energy in Western economies goes up.
Take a look at Russian oil production before and after Ukraine sanctions. 9.6 million barrels per day before , 9.5 million barrels per day after. Russian revenue has declined, but the beneficiaries have been China and India buying up cheaper oil.
Developing countries will choose the cheapest form of energy to grow their economies
Unless carbon free baseload power becomes cheaper than coal and gas, emissions will not decline.
So RCP4.5 to RCP 6.0 looks realistic, the EIA NZE report projecting a renewable technology path to RCP2.6 is based on Paris Accord commitments which will not be met.