Thanks a lot for sharing the presentation! Sorry that I might have missed it. But, where do I find an explanation, why IPCC AR6 has published different assessments with regard to "agricultural drought, ecological drought and fire weather" in Chapter 11 and 12?
These differences are explainable by the confidence threshold used in Ch.12 for asserting emergence. My summary of Ch.11 includes claims of detection and attribution without considering the level of confidence.
That said, there are some statements across and within the two chapters that do appear in conflict. Problem with such a sprawling assessment authored by committee.
What can you tell us about the hot weather starting in July? As I recall, Steven Koonin in his mid August interview identified the July figures of normalized temperature variance as a not unprecedented spike in the satellite global temperature measurements and mentioned El Nino starting up and the underwater volcano in Tonga as possible contributing factors. However it seems to have been hot in August and September as well although I haven't seen the equivalent chart data for this months.
Very droll Edward. :-) I'd be delighted if that were the case! I also asked about August and September
It seems as though you perhaps haven't seen it so here is the link to Steven Koonin's video, the relevant part starts at about 27:40 with the relevant graph at about 30:00 and discussion onwards to 34:00
Dr Steven Koonin's interview on Uncommon Knowledge Hoover Institute August 2023.
My personal introduction fwiw
Pro nuclear, an excellent overview and some detail of what's wrong with the Climate Change Debate. He is one of USA top scientists, is a Democrat, his book indicates he doesn't like Trump's lack of truth, PhD MIT, Provost of Caltech, Chief Scientist for BP to do their renewable energy program, Under Secretary for Energy for Obama, then Defence work and in 2014 reviewed Climate Science at a workshop. His book "Unsettled" in 2021 was widely criticised but he has rebutted criticism and the interview is a great summary.
Thank you also for sharing the link as well as the profile of Dr. Koonin. That said, I would respectfully observe that it seems that there is a confusion between weather and climate. A long, hot summer and Indian summer is still weather. Flooding rains in New York are flooding rains. Not apocalyptic. Delight in our highly variable, sometimes dangerous climate system.
Yes exactly there is very much that difference which Steven Koonin's August interview first brought into focus for me and I subsequently found THB - another splendid voice of reason. I am an Oxford physics graduate and not aware of being confused :-) and it seems you aren't either.
I am still hoping Roger might yet offer a comment on the above interview referenced temperature anomaly graph, extended through September. As you will have seen, Steven Koonin indicated scientists were looking into the question as to why the July spike was so high.
Roger, eliminate 2 alarmist words in your first slide (serious and urgent) and I am with you.
You have been singing the same song since before publication of "The Climate Fix" 12 years ago. Given the knowledge that scenarios of the past were overblown and that current rational scenarios paint a very different picture don't you think it's time that you updated your message?
On the chapter 11, and chapter 12 charts, I see fire weather and agricultural and ecological drought shaded yellow in chapter 11, but not shaded at all in chapter 12. Am I reading this correctly?
Great podcast Roger. 2 real actioanable items that people can take away: (i) fix the design flaw in the NCA. I don think an other body to review the NCA or the IPCC is a good pathway. It's better to fix the institution that were created for the express purpose of having an authoritative and INDEPENDENT body that informs policy makers who are charged with deploying Trillions of tax dollars. The fact the NCA reports to the Executive branch is an issue and in general, most academic research bodies need to be untethered from funding that specifically directs research for a particular outcome. As a life long public accountant where independence and objectivity is nonnegotiable, this fix is self evident. the AICPA defines Independence as follows: Independence is defined as follows: "Independence of mind is the state of mind that permits a member to perform an attest service without being affected by influences that compromise professional judgment, thereby allowing an individual to act with integrity and exercise objectivity and professional skepticism." Being objective means you have to act without conflict. Sometimes it's hard to avoid pandering to the hand that feeds you. Which is why professions have clear conflict and independence restrictions.
The second takeaway is great advice to the oil and gas companies. Start modeling your own pathway and demonstrate what the world looks like without an orderly transition. Too much of the modeling is pointing out current and forecasted consumption patterns without pointing to why---(i.e. no easy substitution, interconnected systems, long dated construction, incumbent infrastructure, high costs, accessibility etc.. Great talk.
Major Oil Companies like Exxon, Shell and BP have been modeling various pathways for a long time. They are not the ones that will be surprised by the lack of an orderly transition.
I just learned about the CO2 Coalition, an organization that challenges the IPCC's stance on climate change. Here's an interesting article about Nobel Laureate John Clauser, one of the directors of the CO2 Coalition
Clauser was scheduled to address the International Monetary Fund, but his presentation was cancelled after he spoke to a group of Korean students and told them their biggest obligation was to tell the truth about science. That was too much for the IMF.
Clauser seems like exactly the kind of voice of reason and integrity that we need right now.
Roger, what do you think of the CO2 Coalition and their work?
How do I download the transcript with time stamp that I see? Thank you!
Thanks a lot for the explanation!
Thanks a lot for sharing the presentation! Sorry that I might have missed it. But, where do I find an explanation, why IPCC AR6 has published different assessments with regard to "agricultural drought, ecological drought and fire weather" in Chapter 11 and 12?
These differences are explainable by the confidence threshold used in Ch.12 for asserting emergence. My summary of Ch.11 includes claims of detection and attribution without considering the level of confidence.
That said, there are some statements across and within the two chapters that do appear in conflict. Problem with such a sprawling assessment authored by committee.
Could you write a post about this some time? I have been looking into AR6 and the apparent inconsistencies seem very strong.
Great idea!
That was a great presentation and Q and A.
What can you tell us about the hot weather starting in July? As I recall, Steven Koonin in his mid August interview identified the July figures of normalized temperature variance as a not unprecedented spike in the satellite global temperature measurements and mentioned El Nino starting up and the underwater volcano in Tonga as possible contributing factors. However it seems to have been hot in August and September as well although I haven't seen the equivalent chart data for this months.
Not to speak for Roger, but if I recall, the hot weather in July is attributable to the phenomenon called "summer."
Very droll Edward. :-) I'd be delighted if that were the case! I also asked about August and September
It seems as though you perhaps haven't seen it so here is the link to Steven Koonin's video, the relevant part starts at about 27:40 with the relevant graph at about 30:00 and discussion onwards to 34:00
Dr Steven Koonin's interview on Uncommon Knowledge Hoover Institute August 2023.
My personal introduction fwiw
Pro nuclear, an excellent overview and some detail of what's wrong with the Climate Change Debate. He is one of USA top scientists, is a Democrat, his book indicates he doesn't like Trump's lack of truth, PhD MIT, Provost of Caltech, Chief Scientist for BP to do their renewable energy program, Under Secretary for Energy for Obama, then Defence work and in 2014 reviewed Climate Science at a workshop. His book "Unsettled" in 2021 was widely criticised but he has rebutted criticism and the interview is a great summary.
End of my personal introduction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l90FpjPGLBE
Graham, Thank you. Couldn't resist.
Thank you also for sharing the link as well as the profile of Dr. Koonin. That said, I would respectfully observe that it seems that there is a confusion between weather and climate. A long, hot summer and Indian summer is still weather. Flooding rains in New York are flooding rains. Not apocalyptic. Delight in our highly variable, sometimes dangerous climate system.
Edward,
Yes exactly there is very much that difference which Steven Koonin's August interview first brought into focus for me and I subsequently found THB - another splendid voice of reason. I am an Oxford physics graduate and not aware of being confused :-) and it seems you aren't either.
I am still hoping Roger might yet offer a comment on the above interview referenced temperature anomaly graph, extended through September. As you will have seen, Steven Koonin indicated scientists were looking into the question as to why the July spike was so high.
heavy precipitation is also yellow in the first slide and white in the next slide....
See my reply to René Maçon
Roger, eliminate 2 alarmist words in your first slide (serious and urgent) and I am with you.
You have been singing the same song since before publication of "The Climate Fix" 12 years ago. Given the knowledge that scenarios of the past were overblown and that current rational scenarios paint a very different picture don't you think it's time that you updated your message?
On the chapter 11, and chapter 12 charts, I see fire weather and agricultural and ecological drought shaded yellow in chapter 11, but not shaded at all in chapter 12. Am I reading this correctly?
Great podcast Roger. 2 real actioanable items that people can take away: (i) fix the design flaw in the NCA. I don think an other body to review the NCA or the IPCC is a good pathway. It's better to fix the institution that were created for the express purpose of having an authoritative and INDEPENDENT body that informs policy makers who are charged with deploying Trillions of tax dollars. The fact the NCA reports to the Executive branch is an issue and in general, most academic research bodies need to be untethered from funding that specifically directs research for a particular outcome. As a life long public accountant where independence and objectivity is nonnegotiable, this fix is self evident. the AICPA defines Independence as follows: Independence is defined as follows: "Independence of mind is the state of mind that permits a member to perform an attest service without being affected by influences that compromise professional judgment, thereby allowing an individual to act with integrity and exercise objectivity and professional skepticism." Being objective means you have to act without conflict. Sometimes it's hard to avoid pandering to the hand that feeds you. Which is why professions have clear conflict and independence restrictions.
The second takeaway is great advice to the oil and gas companies. Start modeling your own pathway and demonstrate what the world looks like without an orderly transition. Too much of the modeling is pointing out current and forecasted consumption patterns without pointing to why---(i.e. no easy substitution, interconnected systems, long dated construction, incumbent infrastructure, high costs, accessibility etc.. Great talk.
Major Oil Companies like Exxon, Shell and BP have been modeling various pathways for a long time. They are not the ones that will be surprised by the lack of an orderly transition.
I just learned about the CO2 Coalition, an organization that challenges the IPCC's stance on climate change. Here's an interesting article about Nobel Laureate John Clauser, one of the directors of the CO2 Coalition
https://www.realcleareducation.com/articles/2023/09/29/the_entanglement_of_truth_and_science_a_nobel_laureates_advice_to_students_982816.html
Clauser was scheduled to address the International Monetary Fund, but his presentation was cancelled after he spoke to a group of Korean students and told them their biggest obligation was to tell the truth about science. That was too much for the IMF.
Clauser seems like exactly the kind of voice of reason and integrity that we need right now.
Roger, what do you think of the CO2 Coalition and their work?