This is Part 4 in my ongoing series on the future of football. Here are the previous installments:
Part 1, Before the pandemic, the rise and decline
Part 2, Why college football on Saturdays and the NFL is on Sundays.
Part 3, Super Bowl excitement can't hide football's continuing decline
I was in Switzerland a few weeks ago at a meeting when, during a break, someone came up to me and said, “You are from Colorado, yes?,” I nodded yes. “That is where Deion Sanders is, right?” My eyes widened — I can safely say that in my many travels around the world no one has ever opened a discussion with me about Colorado Football. Deion Sanders has definitely caused a stir.
As long-time readers here know, I have a long association with the University of Colorado Boulder, and have been a fan and member of its Athletics Department variously since the 1980s. I view the hiring of Deion Sanders as the head football coach of Colorado as both a stunningly bold move and also one that is incredibly risky for its football program and the university as a whole.
This piece is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but not entirely so. Below, I have sketched out 4 possible scenarios for how 2023 might play out under Sanders. I view each of these scenarios as describing a possible outcome, if a bit colorfully. I do not view them to have equal probability.
If we take the four scenarios and score them with 1 the best and 4 the worst, I’m probably about a 2.8 — I don’t see a winning record in 2023, but I also don’t see a football apocalypse. The Deion Sanders experiment may ultimately end well, but I am more pessimistic. I hope Sanders succeeds, but at the same time the university as an institution has to be ready in case he does not. One thing is for certain — the career legacies of the current Chancellor and AD rest squarely on the outcome of the Sanders experiment.
To that end, let’s discuss the scenarios. Feel free to let me know in the comments where you think the Buffs will land using the 1 to 4 scale, and why you have that view. All views are welcome. We can revisit this in December.
Scenario #1. Playoff Bound!
In its first 2023 game under Sanders, Colorado surprised everyone, losing on a last-second field goal to last year’s national championship runner-up, TCU. The Buffs next took care of CSU and Nebraska, much to the delight of its long-suffering fans, but it was not until Colorado beat Oregon at home in its fourth game that pundits across the country really started to pay attention. Colorado lost the next week at home to USC. No one expected what came next – the mighty Buffaloes reeled off 7 wins in a row, setting up a rematch with USC in the PAC-12 Championship game — the winner to land a place in the final 4-team National Championship playoff. This time, the Buffs handled USC in a wild shootout, winning 56-51. The Buffs were paired with Alabama in the playoff semi-finals and lost handily. So what? The season was an incredible success, far exceeding even the highest expectations of fans and administrators. Deion Sanders and AD Rick George were immediately granted a lifetime contract extensions, making them each among the highest paid in their roles at any public university in the country. CU’s Board of Regents voted to increase the student athletics fee to $999 per semester to cover the new costs of being a top football program in the country.
Scenario #2. Building for the future
When Colorado dropped its first four games of the 2023 season, although each one was competitive, everyone feared the worst. The Sanders Experiment is a Bust! roared Sports Illustrated. But then Colorado hosted the 9th ranked USC Trojans and pulled off a monumental upset — 20-10 behind a stifling defense. It wasn’t long before Colorado cognoscenti started comparing 2023 to 1986, when the Buffs turned a corner under the legend, Coach Mac, Bill McCartney. The Buffs won six of their next seven games, albeit against underperforming PAC-12 competition, losing only to Oregon State on a miserable and wet late-evening game which no one saw on the PAC-12 Network. That record was good enough to find themselves playing for a place in the PAC-12 championship game — hosting Utah, which had lost only to USC in the league. The Buffs lost to the Utes, but at 6-6 had their best record since 2016. Despite finishing third in the league and 0.500 overall, Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes — now with a national fan base — were selected over league runner-up and 10-2 USC to play in the Alamo Bowl against Baylor. Colorado lost 21-9, but no matter. It was a hugely successful first season for Deion Sanders, who went on to a winning record in his second, and final season leading the Buffs, subsequently handing the reigns to his offensive coordinator, Sean Lewis and leaving him with with a deep roster. A bright future seemed assured for the resurgent Buffaloes.
Scenario #3. What did you expect?
The expectations for the Colorado football program could not have been any lower than they were after the 1 victory 2022 campaign. The good news is that the 2023 campaign exceeded those expectations, but the bad news is that in the first Deion Sanders season, the team wound up 3-9. Victories came against Colorado State, ASU and the winless Stanford Cardinal, who had assumed the Buffs position as arguably the worst FBS team in the country. Immediate after the Utah game, the final match-up of the season, more than 3 dozen Colorado players announced their intent to enter the transfer portal. There was a steady drip-drip-drip of negative media reports about the climate within the program and department. Right before Christmas, 2023, Deion Sanders announced that he would be returning to Jackson State University as its Athletics Director. Sanders was widely hailed across the nation as a hero for returning to the program he had left just one year before. At the press conference in Jackson, MS announcing Sanders appointment as AD, Sanders explained, “God works in mysterious ways, and he wanted me to return. I am thankful for Colorado and the opportunity to see what the Lord really has in store for me.” At Colorado, Sean Lewis was quickly promoted to head coach, bringing some stability, but the team had no more than 5 wins in any of the next five seasons.
Scenario #4. Adios Buffaloes!
People thought that the 2022 Colorado football season was as bad as it could get. They were wrong. The 2023 campaign started off with high expectations which were quickly dashed. After Deion Sanders had trouble filling out his roster with skilled transfer players in the summer of 2023, the Buffs started off the season with a decent top of their depth chart, but little in the way of second and third team players. The Buffs were often competitive in the first half of games, but as players tired and injuries mounted so did opponent’s scores. The Buffs lost their first 5 games by an average of more than 20 points. Finger-pointing and public recriminations followed. The Buffs did manage a win against Stanford for Family Weekend, a game advertised nationally as the “Bottom Bowl” to determine the worst team in the country. After that the Buffs bageled out the season, culminating with a massive blowout loss to Utah. No one was surprised when Sanders announced after the Utah game that he would be taking a position as the chief marketing officer for the XFL. The University of Colorado Chancellor and AD both announced their retirements that week as well. Sanders left behind a program that would be limited to only 54 scholarships for 2024 and 70 in 2025, due to the many portal transfers from Colorado following the 2023 season, including numerous players who has previously transferred in via the portal. NCAA rules counted each of these 2x portal transfers players against the Buffs 2024 and 2025 scholarship limits. Colorado had difficulty finding a new coach and attracting players for 2024. The Buffs went 0-12 in 2024 and in January 2025 accepted an offer to join the Big Sky Conference.
As I said above, I’m about a 2.8 (with 1 = Playoff bound! and 4 = Adios Buffaloes!). What are you?
I’ll open this up to all commenters. Keep it respectful and clean — that’s how we roll around here. No warnings.
I don't see the value in a set of predictions that covers pretty much the total range of plausible outcomes. I am not seeing the point of this at all, sorry.
Also it's not made explicit why Sanders taking the coaching position even matters. Is it self-evident that this is a big deal? Could you articulate that a little?
Roger - This reminds me that a few years ago you wrote a book where you advanced an argument that Trans people should be allowed into women's sport given certain provisos. I wonder if you have changed your opinion on this issue since?