51 Comments

Safe bet China, India and others do not take RCP8.5 seriously as their scientists were not present at the table at the time.

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There's legitimate arguments pro and con as to if here exists and how serious is the climate problem.

But it's clear that we have a billionaire problem.

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Nice post Roger!

It's an insightul expose of the manipulation of climate science by multiple groups, many of which are only using the climate issue as means to some socio-political end [be it power, money, fame , tenure, anticapitalism, or even anti-humanism]. I've seen it called a "confluence of interests" rather than a conspiracy, though it has the look of the later.

Sadly, climate science is not the only group that has been affected by a witch's caldron of misinformation and manipulation. In medicine we have "gender affirming care" . Fortunately, with the final Cass Report just released for the British NHS we are just now seeing the beginning of the end of that horrible state of medical affairs. Hats-off to Dr. Hiliary Cass and her team for showing the lack evidence for much of the gender dysphoria care provided over the past decade or so, and to the NHS for accepting it & making huge changes.

As to the climate community, l am not optimistic that any group will have the courage & clout to declare the emperor is nearly naked. It will probably take several catastrophic collapses of the electrical grid to get their attention [worse than 2021 Texas].

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What we need is a concerted “lawfare” movement to attack the government agencies that continually publish on their websites and reports biased information that violates congressionally mandated requirements outlined in OMB Section 515(a), “Guidelines for Ensuring and Maximizing the Quality, Objectivity, Utility, and Integrity of Information Disseminated by Federal Agencies”

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Well put Jeff greetings from California

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Apr 15Liked by Roger Pielke Jr.

I truly appreciate your clear writing style and documentation of each important point you make in support of your case. This is how I am used to seeing proper scientific writing. Keep up the good work.

My main concern these days is centered around the use of Chat GPT and other types of Large Language Model Artificial Intellegence tools. As more and more of these "misinformed" scientific papers are written and available for AI searches to include in their results, the more entrenched this dogma becomes. Most end users of these tools will not make the effort to check the validity of the content--but will rather take it all at face value, then add to the pile themselves.

The scientific process has now become a self-reinforcing do-loop that is out of control.

An additional point to be made here. Scientific funding has been influenced to only support research that follows a specific narrative. In order to survive, many academics must follow that narrative or face career annilation should they want to take a different path to advance their science.

Not sure what can be done other than to remain fully vigilant of everything that is published in any format.

I have come to trust all that you produce and rely on your findings and essays to keep me centered personally. I have come to distrust all major media and social media. Thank goodness for Substack.

I am a paid subscriber. Your work here is important.

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author

Thank you! Your comment is a nice way to start a Monday ;-)

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Club of Rome member Vandana Shiva is personally responsible for the devastating 2021 famine in Sri Lanka which lead to the resignation of the president.

"It was on the advice of Vandana Shiva, an Indian Environmentalist, that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa took the decision to ban chemical fertilisers in 2021

https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/the-indian-connection-behind-sri-lankas-disastrous-environmental-wokeness-4962938.html

See also

"Curbing population growth" by Dr. Vandana Shivaji (Nov 2018)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29fQSY6OVsY

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Brilliant article. It fills in the details of what I already knew or suspected

There appears to be powerful individuals who believe there are too many people. The Club of Rome was set up by (billionaire) David Rockefeller. In 1972 it published a report called 'Limits to growth researched using a revolutionary 1970s computer model to predict the future !

The goal was ' to move beyond growth and fully integrate social and climate justice, equality and planetary boundaries". The fundamental message is that growth is dangerous. Climate change is the limiting factor which determines what must happen. Sustainability is the goal of the WEF-Davos plan for what they call the 'great reset'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset

I attended Green Party meetings until a lecture on zero and negative growth which as a leftist I found unacceptable. All the Scottish leaders were academics at that time, including my ex.

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Rough day for Arsenal fans.

😢

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What I don’t understand is why the billionaires want to promote the BS. What’s in it for them? I know that “scientists” go after the immense funding dollars that are in support of the BS, but why would smart billionaires promote it?

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Very simple. Power and control. Like heroin to a

junkie for these people, it is an uncontrollable addiction.

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1) not all billionaires are “smart”, the correlation between wealth and intelligence is weak

2) these 3 dudes must’ve convinced themselves that climate Armageddon is real and with predictable arrogance and condescension decided to use some chum change to put some fear into the complacent peasants

3) then the media thirsty for blood on the streets did the rest

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Apr 14·edited Apr 14

Just look at the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang's articles that deal with a storm or climate change's comments. Lunatic comments blaming every weather event on global warming -- with most centering around virtue signaling.

There is a subset of the population that is only happy when they are unhappy and churning the water on behalf of some cause. I've seen it written that progressives born too late to participate in the civil rights movement of th 1960's keep looking for a similar cause and many have latched onto global warming.

No amount of genuine science can persuade these people! Believe me, I've tried. It is genuinely religion to them who, almost to man and woman, reject faith in God.

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Here's one from Monday: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/04/15/severe-weather-tornado-threat-central-plains-midwest/ This one is relatively tame and intelligent.

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Maybe take a look into all the taxpayer $$$ being shoveled into renewables

And you’ll have your answer

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Follow the money Baby!!

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I just re-read "How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality" and still find the nomenclature very confusing. "Baselines," "assessments," "scenarios," "policy scenarios," and the underling "socioeconomic assumptions" associated with each - the differences and distinctions among them are a challenge for a layperson such as myself. I can send you my annotated copy, if you're interested in seeing the evolution of my confusion. But regarding RCP 8.5: at a recent energy conference I heard that both China and India intend to aggressively transition their vehicle fleets to EVs and that they both intend use coal-fired power generation to produce the electricity to charge those vehicles. Given that in both countries coal is the most abundant and cheapest source of energy, it makes perfect sense that they intend to exploit it, CO2 emissions notwithstanding. If that is the case, is RCP8.5 so improbable a scenario? Or asked differently, if the China/India coal-use scenario obtains, with what RCP scenario would it be most closely associated?

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Pielke is a lukewarmer who ignores the reality that CO2 has already reached maximum saturation for warming. It's sad to see him give credence to any of these models.

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Have you considered that China’s and India’s climate scientists may have DIFFERENT climate scenarios less drastic than RCP 8.5 while paying lip service to their Western colleagues?

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I'm confident that whatever scenarios they subscribe to, they are not worried about an impending climate catastrophe. I am equally confident that they are perfectly happy if not baffled to see the developed Western nations hobble themselves with ruinously expensive renewable mandates that work to China's and India's economic advantage.

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Are you saying Dr. Will Happer is wrong about the physics of the CO2 molecule?

https://youtu.be/Oog7-KOtpEA

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I honestly don’t know understand what the US has to gain by pursuing which is daily being exposed as misinformation. It’s just everywhere. Yet we blindly destroy as example the car business by producing cars no one wants subsidies by the US tax payer. My friend a Tesla says now he wishes he brought plug in hybrid. Another buddy, with multiple car dealerships is having to floor plan EV’s that no one wants to buy. Are we just plain stupid. They wonder why people call CC a scam. Look no further then your brilliant summary.

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No, WE aren't stupid but the people 'leading' us are -or- they are in it for themselves and their potential wealth would be threatened by rocking the boat.

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I would be happier if I thought their motive was as simple as avarice. I'm afraid it's more ideological: They want to transform both society and the economy into one that more suits their socialist ideals - as long as they can be the ones in charge of it all. I suspect they are all totalitarians at heart. Stop the APEs (Arrogant Progressive Elites)

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It's been clear for a while that Science™ has been subordinated to politics. Climate Change has become our American Lysenkoism. One more casualty of no one learning history anymore.

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Data integrity: An article in Epoch Times by Katie Spence and Roger Hiller at RealScience.com both report that 30% of the weather stations used by the United States Historical Climate Network (USHCN) do not exist. Hiller claims the number is closer to 50%. As older stations have worn out or gone unrepaired, NOAA merely takes an average from surrounding stations, but continues to report the ghost stations as if real.

The only temperatures I trust are at the University of Alabama at Huntsville. That's where climate alarmism goes to die.

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Some of the biggest and worst conspiracies are those that are foisted on the public in plain sight. Monetary policies, TDS, DEI, The intelligence community, Covid and of course, Climate Change “which is real and mostly man made “. ( I included that because you do and I want to be part of the crowd). One factor is always found in these conspiracies, money, taxpayers money or in some circles of elite society, mothers milk. Wildly rich people who are using government and the media to push false narratives to keep us afraid and themselves rich.

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Actually I would disagree that "there is no hidden conspiracy". What Roger is documenting here isn't hidden but that doesn't mean there isn't a whole other level that is hidden, secretive, devious & nefarious.

If this was just a few billionaires, on some personal crusade, I would agree with Roger, but that is not what is happening. If that was true we would be see very diverse viewpoints on climate change spread amongst the hundreds of billionaires, nation states, supranational organizations like the UN, WEF, World Bank, IMF, IEA & hundreds of NGO's. That's not what is happening. We are seeing lockstep obedience to this extremist & irrational climate change danger narrative by all of the above.

My conclusion, the conclusion of many others who have studied this, is that all this is being directed at an international level by an uber-wealthy elite, who mostly try to remain anonymous. That's conspiracy. And it is the most dangerous thing happening on our planet right now, by far.

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The climate hysteria serves the same purpose as warfare and welfare. Extract billions from the private sector via taxes and imflation and deploy this wealth for political ends. The political ends include voting blocks and crony capitalism. Propaganda and censorship play their part.

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