THB Premier League Prediction Contest

Got skill?

Premier League table over 20 years. Source: Nick Harris, Mail on Sunday

Back in the day I ran a season-long contest for predicting the Premier League season. It was both fun and a source of data for the analysis of predictive skill. I’m bringing it back here at THB.

A prediction is said to have skill if it improves upon a naïve baseline. A naïve baseline is the predictive performance that you could achieve without having any expertise in or knowledge of a subject. For instance, in weather forecasting a naïve baseline might be the climatological weather for a particular day. In investing, skill might be the performance of the S&P 500 index or some other index.

For the 2023/24 THB Premier League prediction contest I will use 3 naïve baselines, which differ in their degree of naivety.

• The 2023 final EPL table

• The 2023/24 EPL wage table (Update: an eagle-eyed reader has suggested that the table below is in error, so I also have added the Transfermarkt player transer value for each club below)

• My good friend, Nick Harris’ forecast

Each of these tables are readily available and there is thus absolutely no excuse for you to do worse than these. But can you do better?

The scoring of predictive skill will use the mean-squared error of the predictions, as defined below.

The season kicks off on Friday, with Burnley and Manchester City. All entries in the comments below submitted before kickoff of that match will be included — one entry per person. The most skillful prediction will receive a one-year free subscription to THB and a signed copy of my book, The Edge. In the process, together we will learn something about the challenges of prediction and predictive skill. During the season I’ll share periodic updates on how the competition is going.

Below are the clubs for 2023/24 — just copy, reorder and submit your prediction in the comments below.

Good Luck! Or should I say, Good Skill!

Arsenal

Aston Villa

Bournemouth

Brentford

Brighton & Hove Albion

Burnley

Chelsea

Crystal Palace

Everton

Fulham

Liverpool

Luton Town

Manchester City

Manchester United

Newcastle United

Nottingham Forest

Sheffield United

Tottenham Hotspur

West Ham United

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Thanks for your support!