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Mike Smith's avatar

Roger, I am deeply grateful to NCAR for being the venue where our friendship began and for feeding me a number of delicious meals.

However, I must disagree as to its effectiveness -- especially in meteorology which was the reason for which it was originally founded. As I understand it, it was meant to be a long-term continuation of "The Thunderstorm Project" and similar applied meteorological research programs. In that area, it has failed miserably. UCAR "captured" NCAR and it has been "basic" atmospheric research ever since. That is why it is been a competitor to university programs.

I disagree about its institutional stance on climate change. To cite one example, I attended an NCAR-sponsored session at an AMS meeting in DEN in 2012 on climate change. It had your dad on one side and four others (including Kevin) on the other side. They would hardly allow your dad to speak even when I tried to direct a question to him!

Before the session, a pamphlet was passed out with both the NCAR/UCAR logos on the back. It was quite extreme as to its climate change claims. The final page assessed the odds of the temperature change of the atmosphere in the following 89 years (until 2100). The chances of cooling were literally zero. I asked about the claim including the hypothetical, "What if there was a long period of higher than normal volcanic activity?" Kevin replied that the atmosphere would still warm because of CO2. Okay...

My point is that while I am appalled at the thought of a complete shutdown of NCAR, from where I sit there is much more room for reform and and a reversion to its original mission than the other members posting comments seem to believe.

Jory  Pacht's avatar

1) I agree with you 100%. Shutting down NCAR is a national tragedy.

2) It was entirely predictable, Whenever, science becomes politicized, either on the right or on the left, bad things happen. The first and most immediate thing is the loss of credibility. Look at the chart you published in a preceding article

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eMEh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6d0dd21-5806-4fdb-a450-972a74d78b9f_1022x708.png

Science has lost credibility among not only conservatives but also among moderates. Science is no longer perceived as a dispassionate endeavor to learn more about the world that surrounds us. It is now perceived as a democratic talking point. Most of this has been due to Covid. But a close second has been the wildly exaggerated gloom and doom pronouncements about climate change, many of which you have elegantly disputed in your previous essays. And let's be honest, there were more than a few activists at NCAR. You tell me, how many are still using RCP 8.5 as their base case? Answer: Quite a few.

You have to be pretty naive (a characteristic of many academics) to think that once you leave the sweet cocoon of the ivory tower and enter the political arena that things like this are not going to happen. Politics is a blood spot -both on the left and right.

The usual suspects will yell and scream, but nothing will change until climate science becomes objective climate science again. The retraction of the Nature paper on economic damage is a good start, however as you have pointed out in numerous essays, we are a long way away from that nonpolitical ideal. Just so we are clear, even though I am on the right, I feel the exact same way about science colored by right-wing ideology. When politics enters science; science always loses. ALWAYS!!!!!

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